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Many New Zealand exports may be heavily dependent on China, but the USA has more influence when it comes to wine says Rabobank's senior wine and horticulture analyst Hayden Higgins.
Rabobank's Agribusiness Outlook 2020 looked to the US, as New Zealand's "most important market" Higgins told The Country's Jamie Mackay.
"The trade spat happening between Europe and the US, with tariffs going on wines from a number of European countries perhaps creates an opportunity for New Zealand exporters to capitalise on that in terms of creating market share or attracting consumers to our wine styles."
Rabobank was expecting a US recession in 2020 and this, combined with flat wine consumption, could cause consumers to become more conscious of where they spend their money.
"So a higher-priced imported wine from another country perhaps creates an opportunity for us".
Meanwhile Brexit may be more of a "disruption" than a "complete calamity" for New Zealand wines said Higgins.
"In the long run we think that demand will generally continue to follow its own path but again, some of that will be influenced as to how Brexit plays out as to whether there is an orderly Brexit and the impact on consumers' incomes through that process".
Also in today's interview: Higgins talked about how coronavirus could affect New Zealand's horticulture sector.