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There are two recurring themes through Rabobank's latest Agribusiness Monthly report - drought and coronavirus.
Although rain will eventually come and alleviate the drought, coronavirus is a different story, says Rabobank chief executive Todd Charteris.
"It's that whole disruption to logistics that has really taken a hit" Charteris told The Country's Jamie Mackay.
According to the report, 31 per cent of sector exports by value were destined for China in 2019.
Rabobank estimated that around 15 per cent of all products coming off-farm were shipped to China via refrigerated containers, with a significant exposure to the Chinese food service industry in products like beef, sheepmeat, and cheese.
"Those numbers certainly highlight the reliance that we hold on that market."
Meanwhile drought in New Zealand was also taking its toll on logistics for red meat said Charteris.
"[There's a] really large increase in supply of product coming off farm ... in January there was something like a 13 per cent increase in lamb supply. So a lot of congestion on killing space putting a lot of pressure on logistics there.
"A combination of those things have seen reasonable drops in on-farm prices or schedule prices in the last month."
One commodity that seemed to be performing well despite these conditions was dairy said Charteris, who noted that Rabobank dairy analyst Emma Higgins was sticking to her farmgate milk price forecast of NZD 7.60/kgMS.
"It's a great number."
Also in today's interview: Charteris talked about what Rabobank's Agribusiness Monthly March 2020 report had to say about the exchange rate.
Read the full Rabobank New Zealand Agribusiness Monthly March 2020 below: