The Concorde Handicap, the final event at Avondale today, has never been an easy race to predict.
The only thing you probably can declare with confidence is that it will be a hard-run race.
And that just might suit Jazzella.
The classy and often underrated mare has the advantage of an inside No 3 barrier draw.
And the advantage of history.
In this race last year, Jazzella finished a head behind winner Pinsoir.
In that she carried 54.5kg and Pinsoir 53kg.
Today, Pinsoir has 58kg and Jazzella 57.5kg.
Not that that will make it easy for her. The 57.5kg is as much as you ever want to see mares carry at this level. The balancing figure is the lovely trip she's likely to cop from the barrier draw.
The weight special in the race is Keepa Cruisin. She finished just three-quarters of a length from stablemate Culminate and Ruud Van Slaats in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe last start.
The important statistic is that she drops from 57g in that to 54kg here and has drawn reasonably well at No 6.
From there, she should cop the run of the race and be able to finish off strongly off the solid speed.
Beautiful Girl has emerged only recently, but looks up to this class.
The 53.5kg will help, but the outside barrier drawn won't.
If she could land an economical run she could still be in the finish.
THE PUNT
We'll take $2 about the TV weather forecasters being wrong again.
No, that's too cynical.
Regardless of them being wrong for the past two days, at least in Auckland for today's $100,000 West Brook Avondale Cup, it still comes down to whether they can get it right for today.
That's the key to betting at Avondale's big racing day of the year.
Continued fine would be great, predicted rain a disaster for many.
A good surface would be a perfect result for King Kapisi (No6, R7). He is one of the most promising emerging intermediate horses and struck a brick wall when full of running at Tauranga last start. He still has a little bit to learn, but is worth backing and following. Daverra (No10) is a real chance.
Khemosabi (No2, R8) is a horse on the way through. He has speed and finish-off ability and is capable of winning a couple more in the next month or two.
Pinstar (No9, R5) finished only fourth when resuming, but it was a sound effort. He can really finish off his races and this is likely to be one of them. Vincent Mangano (No1) has drawn badly, but the stable has been riding him from the back in recent starts and that might almost help. He is well capable in this grade.
Oneswanstonstreet (No5, R3) has drawn a nice gate to take advantage of her speed. She has shown real ability at times and this looks a nice race for her, despite one or two strong chances facing her. They include The Lady (No6) despite an awkward barrier, and Poetic Music (No4)
Back In Black (No1, R6) probably got to the front a touch too soon at Pukekohe last week and paid the penalty. He is very under-rated and deserves a winning turn, even under his topweight.
Racing: Sprinters certain to fly in Concorde
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