National ahead of Labour in latest poll, but Labour could form government

Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Christopher Luxon. Photo / NZME

Labour is just behind National in the latest corporate poll from Talbot Mills, who also run Labour’s private political polling.

However Labour would have the numbers to form a government with Te Pāti Māori’s backing.

The poll had Labour at 33 per cent, behind National which was on 36 per cent.

The Greens came in at 11 per cent, just ahead of Act which polled 10 per cent.

NZ First was still below the 5 per cent threshold on 3.4 per cent, Te Pāti Māori was next on 3 per cent and TOP was on 2.3 per cent.

The December poll had Labour on 32 per cent, National on 35 per cent. Act polled 11 per cent and the Greens polled 9 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori polled 3.5 per cent, NZ First polled 4.3 per cent and TOP 2.4 per cent.

On the latest numbers, National would have 46 seats and Act would have 13 - 59 in total and not enough to form a government.

Labour would have 43 seats and the Greens 14.

Te Pāti Māori would hold the balance of power with four seats.

Forty-nine per cent of people believed the country was on the wrong track, compared with 42 per cent who believed it was on the right track.

Seventy-seven per cent of people felt poor or not so good about the economy, while 22 per cent felt good or excellent. This is one of the largest gaps since the pandemic.

The news was not all bad for Labour.

New leader Chris Hipkins polled 35 per cent as preferred prime minister, well ahead of rival Christopher Luxon who polled 27 per cent.

Act’s David Seymour polled 9 per cent.

The poll was taken between January 26 and January 31.

The poll differs slightly from two public polls published last week, the 1 News Kantar Public and the Newshub Reid Research polls

1 News Kantar had Labour on 38, National on 37 and the Greens and Act trailing on 7 and 10 respectively.

Newshub Reid Research had Labour on 38, National on 36.6, with the Greens and Act on 8.1 and 10.7 respectively.

Te Pāti Māori polled 1.4 per cent in the 1 News Kantar poll and 1.8 per cent in the Newshub Reid Research Poll.

Speaking to 1 News about its poll, Hipkins said he had been encouraged by the bump in support but there was “a lot of work ahead.

“New Zealanders, I think, know what to expect from me. They’ll expect someone who’s fairly straight up, fairly honest,” he said.

He said the public’s reaction to him face-to-face had been “positive so far”.

The poll also looked at support for Three Waters. Just 17 per cent supported the reforms, while 42 per cent opposed them.

Unlike the other polls, which appear to show a significant recovery in support for Labour from polls taken at the end of 2022, the Talbot Mills poll shows Labour’s support fairly unchanged from last year.

A poll from October-November had Labour on 34, National on 35, the Greens on 9, act on 10 and Te Pāti Māori on 3.2 per cent.