The Orange Agent's greatest rivals could prove key allies in helping her overcome a potentially horror draw in tonight's $150,000 New Zealand Oaks.
The record-smashing filly goes into the classic with nine wins from 11 starts this season, an easy Nevele R Final victory last Saturday and needing only another win tonight to be guaranteed filly-of-the-year honours.
However, barrier nine, the outside of the front line, suggests her $1.80 fixed odds with the TAB are way too short and that, unlike in her recent starts, luck is going to come into play.
It is not that The Orange Agent hasn't come from back in the field to record some stunning, national record wins already this season. It is just that is a lot harder to do against five other group one winners in a race where the speed looks certain to be on.
Only one of, in some sort of order, Fight For Glory, Democrat Party, Start Dreaming or Supersonic Miss need to get the perfect trip and snatch a break on The Orange Agent at the right time for the northern filly to face a near mission impossible.
Aiding her, though, is the fact the second-best filly in the race on recent form, NSW Oaks winner Fight For Glory, has also drawn poorly, a fact not lost on The Orange Agent's driver, Maurice McKendry.
"I'll admit barrier nine isn't exactly what we wanted and it could make it very hard," says McKendry.
"But you never know in racing, sometimes a bad draw can be a good draw.
"And the fact fillies like Fight For Glory and Start Dreaming are drawn to be back too means there could be a few decent horses out the back early.
"That could see them move together mid-race and help us a bit."
Considering her record this season, the ease of her win last Saturday and the natural improvement she should take from it, The Orange Agent deserves favouritism tonight.
But your punting line in the sand should be $2.50 and don't take less.
Fight For Glory was almost as good as the winner last Saturday so with any luck can take the Oaks, while the most improved filly in the country is Start Dreaming, who has gone to another level since chasing The Orange Agent home in the Northern Oaks.
She looks to have overtaken her stablemate Democrat Party but the latter has the ace and along with Supersonic Miss ran on well enough last Saturday to suggest they are upset each-way hopes tonight.
While the favourite has the worse draw in the Oaks, Lazarus may have been handed the $170,000 Sires' Stakes Final by securing barrier three.
He is a professional juvenile with a high cruising speed and with two longshots inside him he should jump to the front, from where his main threat would be pressure from Aussie visitor Salty Robyn.
If that eventuates Lazarus becomes vulnerable to the attentions later of Shandale and Chase The Dream but the race lacks depth so it is hard to go past the favourite.
It is even harder to make a case against Speeding Spur in the Sales Series Trot (R2), while Northern Velocity and Luisanabelle Midfrew standout in the $150,000 Sales Series Fillies Pace, with the latter potentially having the gate speed to cross her more favoured rival and make her chase hard.
Border Control feels like he has almost forgotten how to win but faces such a huge drop in class the Winter Cup looks his to lose, while Master Lavros will only have to race up to his win over Stent last Saturday to go back-to-back in the trot.
That leaves the $60,000 Sires' Stakes Trot for the juveniles, where High Gait deserves favouritism but northerner Gershwin represents good each-way value.
Three for Addington
Best bet: Master Lavros (R4): Beat Stent last week, none he meets tonight could do that at the moment.
Finally: Border Control (R6): Hasn't won for ages but it took Christen Me to beat him last time this track and distance.
Value: Gershwin (R7): Huge draw advantage and if he trots throughout hard for High Gait to catch.