He said North American demand for larger cuts had supported pricing, and the industry was seeing significant volumes of velvet exit the system.
“We think there could be as much as 200 tons of velvet exit the system this season based on what’s been sent to the works and paid well for–particularly the North American venison supply chain, which likes the bigger cuts of meat.”
Cochrane said that, while farmers wanted higher prices than $11, they were mindful of market stability and the risk of cheaper alternatives replacing venison.
“Venison can be substituted for cheaper products–so, it’s always at the back of mind.”
He said that tight supply should help maintain pricing over the medium term.
“It’s not picked to really start picking itself up and getting back to where we were several years ago for the next three or four years.”
Cochrane said the industry’s focus on velvet stags over breeding hinds for venison in recent years had peaked, contributing to an oversupplied velvet market.
He said a mixed model remained sensible for farm resilience.
“Having a bit of diversity within deer, having a venison and a velvet model, and of course using elk bulls as terminal sires and high growth rate red deer is also a good thing to have.”
Cochrane said trophy hunting was another way to diversify and also played a role in keeping the sector buoyant, despite hunters sourcing animals outside farms.
“Most of those guys are self-sufficient as far as not having to go to farms to look for these animals that are well bred for trophies, but it certainly does help.”
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Cochrane said disciplined selling had supported velvet prices through the season, along with confidence in the future.
“That’s helped us this season, particularly with velvet.
“We didn’t sell a stick leading up to Christmas, based on the fact that we had low offers, and we knew that the market had too much stock, so you’re just pushing a product that’s not required.”
He said higher kill rates for mixed-age stags would reduce regrowth and help rebalance velvet supply.
“That, and the fact that the stags that have already been sent to the works aren’t going to produce regrowth, so...that’s going to lower the volume or the supply.
“We know also at the consumer end of the deer velvet market that prices don’t really change. It’s really that wholesale supply and demand mix in between.”
He said sentiment played a role, and key markets were improving.
“South Korea and China, they’re starting to look upwards, probably a little bit faster than us.”
Reflecting on the broader outlook, Cochrane agreed stability was increasing across farming in the medium to long term.
“Everyone is starting to look forward; no one’s looking over their shoulders.
“We’ve got a whole heap of opportunities, and New Zealand is sitting right in the hot seat.”
As the deer industry settles into a period of greater stability, insight and timing matter more than ever.
Across venison, velvet, genetics and on-farm strategy, PGG Wrightson’s Livestock specialists work alongside farmers to help them make informed decisions in changing markets.
For more market insights, sale updates and expert commentary across the sector, visit the PGG Wrightson Livestock Hub. Because whatever the market is doing, they’re there to help you move with it.
