Real estate followed close behind.
“Probably about March, April, earlier in the year, that’s when basically we turned the corner, and we’ve seen continued momentum right the way through to where we are today, and I don’t think that’ll change.”
Newbold said there were key drivers behind the result, including better interest rates and inflation slowing.
“Really, the returns that the farmers are getting are definitely influencing the real estate market.”
He said the days of speculative capital gains driving farm prices were gone, as vendors purchased on yield.
“That’s one thing we have noticed, especially some of those larger land sales, those that are purchasing are definitely looking on a return basis, because otherwise it just doesn’t stack up and your bank’s not going to lend you the money.
“So definitely, there’s the odd exception, but it’s all looked at from a yield perspective these days.”
Dairy market holds steady
While the dairy market had cooled slightly since November, Newbold said demand remained solid.
“I don’t think it’s made any difference at this point.
“Also, there’s limited stock, so that probably helps that piece, but look, it’s still moving along at I think, a good rate.”
He said this was especially in key areas such as Mid-Canterbury, where there wasn’t an oversupply, “so that maintains momentum”.
“When you look at the long-term position, you’d still think dairy is a good space moving forward.”
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Sheep, beef and horticulture on the rise
Meanwhile, strong export figures are also boosting confidence in sheep, beef, and horticulture.
MPI’s Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report forecasts meat and wool export revenue to increase 7% to $13.2 billion in the June 2026 year, following 9% growth in 2024/25.
Newbold expected sheep and beef to “come alive” in the new year.
“We’re starting to see a bit of activity now. The last two months have been really strong, but the feeling is that as we get through those early summer months and move into autumn, I think we’re going to see a big change in that space, which is good.
“The only thing I think our vendors just need to be mindful of is that they don’t get ahead of where the market is.”
Horticulture wasn’t far behind, expected to increase by 5% in the year to June 2026, to more than $9 billion, driven largely by kiwifruit.
Newbold said kiwifruit was “quietly moving along”.
“We’re starting to see more sales, and again, that momentum will continue into the next season.”
Backing rural New Zealand
With food and fibre responsible for 83% of New Zealand’s export goods, Newbold said the outlook for rural property remained positive heading into 2026.
He urged people to get behind rural New Zealand.
“When you see some of those numbers that have come out today, you know, if we weren’t backing our rural friends, we’d be in big trouble.”
And when asked to reveal his Ag Person of the Year, Newbold didn’t hesitate, naming Fonterra chairman Peter McBride.
“I think he’s a gentleman who quietly goes about achieving, and everything he seems to get involved in, he adds some value to it.
“So, that’s who I would pick for the year from where I sit.”
Buyers and vendors looking to better understand the rural, lifestyle or residential market can find listings, market insights and local expertise at pggwre.co.nz.
