Weather: Subtropical low to bring heavy rain and severe gales to upper North Island

Heavy rain and severe gales are forecast to batter the top of the North Island during the next few days. Photo / MetService

More heavy rain and severe gales could sweep across the upper North Island during the latest bout of unpredictable summer weather.

As a subtropical low forms and moves south toward the country, forecasters warn New Zealand is in for another busy week.

MetService forecaster Samkelo Magwala told the Herald that the upper North Island will have showers today, starting to be more frequent in the afternoon for areas like Northland and Auckland.

We're expecting a busy week of weather around NZ as a subtropical low forms and moves south toward the country

Northland will see periods of rain early in the week, with the heaviest rain likely Wed-Wed night

By Thursday, rain (possibly heavy) could overspread other parts of NZ pic.twitter.com/5qOgXiGk2n

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) January 18, 2026

The central North Island will also have showers in the afternoon.

The lower North Island is forecast to remain mostly cloudy with gusts and isolated showers in the afternoon for the southeast, and isolated eastern showers in the South Island.

However, the weather turns worse tomorrow with increasing chances of heavier rain and strong winds.

“Most of the areas in the North will see a chance of some heavy falls,” Magwala said.

“As a result, there is a chance of issuing some warnings for the upper North Island, including Auckland.”

🌧️Severe Weather Outlook: Jan 20-23, 2026 🌧️

Expect a mix of rain and strong winds over the next few days, with some uncertainty around the timing and intensity. From Tuesday, Northland will likely see heavy rain, especially in the north and east, while strong easterlies affect… pic.twitter.com/EUHjKhQT5W

— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 18, 2026

A heavy rain watch has been issued for Northland from 6pm today until 6pm tomorrow.

According to MetService’s severe weather outlook, heavy rain is likely in Northland, with a low confidence that a heavy rainfall warning will be required.

However, there is a moderate chance of MetService issuing a heavy rain warning for the north and east of Northland.

Rain is also possible over Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and northern Hawke’s Bay, but there is a low confidence of a warning being issued for those areas.

Magwala said the low would continue to move further south on Wednesday and affect much of the upper North Island.

“The chances for heavy rain warnings increase, including those for severe gales,” he said.

According to MetService’s severe weather outlook, there is a moderate chance for severe north easterly gales for Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel.

There is also a moderate chance of heavy rain for Northland.

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