According to MetService, there is “moderate confidence” that Monday and Tuesday’s heavy rain in Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and eastern Taihape would necessitate a warning.
Hawke’s Bay is under a rain watch and warning through early Tuesday morning. From Sunday night to Tuesday morning, 120–150mm of rain is predicted to fall in the vicinity of the Ruahine Range.
“The heavy rain warning is mainly for the ranges, so the Ruahines and other inland ranges of Hawke’s Bay. Much of the rest of the area is covered by a heavy rain watch, pretty much from Gisborne all the way down to Wairarapa just north of Carterton,” MetService meteorologist Philippa Murdoch said.
“We say to be careful because rivers and streams can rise rapidly, and you can also get surface flooding and slips as well.”
Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group said on social media the rainfall would likely be around one-in-five-year levels, and that its widespread nature could see a “small to moderate” rise in river levels.
“In Central Hawke’s Bay, this widespread rain may cause surface flooding and roading issues.”
Murdoch said the warning area would see accumulations of 120-150mm of rain, however, the areas under watch would not see this much.
Although not until the middle of next week, the South Island is also under threat. According to MetService, a “couple of fronts” are expected to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.
“These may bring brief heavy rain to Fiordland and Westland, and strong west to northwest winds to exposed parts of Southland and Otago,” MetService said.
“However, currently confidence is very low that warnings will be required for heavy rain or strong winds.”
