“As we look to the back 10 days of the month, we’re going to have air masses coming across the Tasman from the deserts of Australia,” says Noll.
“When those air masses reach New Zealand and the air parcels descend the Southern Alps into the Canterbury region, as well as Otago, Marlborough, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne and Wairarapa, they warm up and dry out.”
That hot, dry air carries the potential of having a sharp impact on the weather we experience on the ground.
“We could be looking at 25C temperatures, maybe even higher, during the last week of September. If we look back, New Zealand’s national temperature record for the month of September was 28C. If we reach that in the final week of the month, it will put us up there with the very warmest September days that New Zealand has experienced.”
This will only mark the start of what could be a summer very different from the recent ones we’ve experienced.
“The last couple of summers, there’s been a lack of 35C-plus temperatures, but I think that streak is going to end,” says Noll.
“This summer, we could be reaching 36, 37, 38 or maybe even 39C later in 2023 and early 2024 when these hot and dry air masses transit the Tasman Sea from Australia.”
What regions are in line for El Niño’s heatwave?
“For the likes of Canterbury, eastern Marlborough, northern Otago, Wairarapa and Hawke’s Bay, but also the Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Auckland and Northland, the weather is going to be quite a contrast to what we’ve dealt with the last couple of springs and summers,” says Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll.
“So, it’s about being prepared for the kind of extremes that are going to be possible for the next six months.”
Those rejoicing about the prospect of a hot, dry summer might want to pop the cork back into the Champagne, however.
The prospect of these conditions will pose a whole range of risks Aotearoa hasn’t seen for a few years.
“The El Niño we’ve got building is among the strongest we’ve seen in the last 80-plus years,” says Noll.
We previously had strong El Niño conditions in 2015-16, 1997-8, 1982-3 and 1972-3 – and the consequences were felt around the country.
“New Zealand had historically bad, and very costly, droughts in some of those years,” says Noll.
“From an agriculture perspective, even though it’s been very wet and your paddocks may still be damp, the combination of drier weather and winds could see soil moisture levels drying out pretty rapidly.”
- So, are we prepared for what’s coming our way?
- Are we at risk of wildfire events?
- Which parts of the country will face the biggest threat of drought?
- And how can families prepare for extreme summer conditions?
Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast to hear Ben Noll explain our weather complications in depth.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
