Red meat sector: Why there’s optimism in the US, despite the tariffs – Anne-Marie Roerink

Anne-Marie Roerink says meat sales are continuing to rise in the US, a key market for New Zealand beef and sheepmeat. Photo / 123RF

Florida-based Anne-Marie Roerink is the founder and president of the 210 Analytics research firm, specialising in quantitative and qualitative market research. Since 2005, she has produced the Power of Meat study, providing an annual update of US shopper habits regarding meat and poultry.

Uncertainty around the United States tariffs has created concern in every part of the supply chain globally, from producers through to the plate.

Consumers are worried that unemployment will rise, prices will increase and items won’t be available.

When consumers are concerned, they don’t spend as freely, may move from restaurants to eating at home and pull back to more basic meals.

Despite this, there’s cause for optimism for the red meat sector, with sales continuing to rise in the US – a key market for New Zealand beef and sheepmeat.

I produce the annual Power of Meat study, which tracks the meat and poultry purchasing habits of consumers throughout the US.

Meat has got off to a strong start in 2025.

We’ve seen huge engagement with ground beef, but lamb and ribeye are also doing well.

There are indications that people are replacing restaurants with retail.

The 20th annual study, published in March, found that meat sales in the US reached a record high of US$105 billion ($173.8b) in 2024, with high household penetration and millennials stepping up to become a significant purchasing sector.

Older millennials moving into higher income brackets are recognising the importance of meat for health and for children’s brain and muscle development.

These represented the biggest gain in the marketplace, accounting for 62% of the 450 million new meat unit sales.

When I researched the first Power of Meat, it became clear that meat departments play the most important role, ahead of price and location, in people deciding where to shop for groceries.

That’s still the case, despite all the headlines a few years back trumpeting the rise of plant-based alternatives (PBAs).

In reality, PBAs never achieved more than 1% of product in meat departments and have continued to drop rapidly, now representing just 0.3%.

Nearly all, 98%, of American households purchase meat.

Taste remains the ultimate driver of repeat purchases, with consumers willing to pay more for quality and flavour, and most considering meat an overall healthy choice.

Florida-based Anne-Marie Roerink has produced the Power of Meat study since 2005.

Protein is an increasing focus, with 90% of Americans believing it is important to consume ample protein daily, and many tracking their intake.

Many food products here are labelled with the protein content.

It might seem like it’s stating the obvious because meat is the original source of protein, but when you see a jar of peanut butter labelled that way, you do think, “perhaps we should be doing that for meat too”.

An economic squeeze doesn’t mean people have more time.

There’s a rising demand for convenience solutions, such as pre-diced or marinated meat, and increased demand for prepared “deli” foods in oven-ready containers.

I think the US consumer still associates New Zealand produce most closely with lamb, even though the country is a big market for New Zealand beef.

Packaging here tends not to focus strongly on country of origin.

It’s more about whether the product is grass-fed, antibiotic-free and raised sustainably.

Consumers are increasingly seeking transparency in labelling.

The youngest purchasers, who have grown up with phones in their hands, are seeking immediate answers.

They are very focused on understanding “what can meat do for me and what does my purchase do for the environment?”

These are questions previous generations didn’t really think about, but now 56% of shoppers are actively trying to make environmentally conscious protein choices.

I do think that provides New Zealand with opportunities to tell its meat story.

People love to picture animals roaming in pastures.

In Canada, I have seen Australian meat packaged with an image of an actual Australian farming couple.

However, it’s important to keep that messaging simple, to understand “consumer speak” and not fall into industry jargon.

As consumer sentiment continues to rise and fall in early 2025, the focus on value will likely persist until the price/wage gap of the past five years narrows enough to overcome the overriding focus on price and promotions.

This provides the meat category in the US with opportunities for continued growth.

Protein and other health benefits, convenience and sustainability are expected to be the additional growth drivers in 2025.