In short, a hurdler in the Melbourne Cup is like Sam Whitelock playing on the wing in the Rugby World Cup final.
But European trainers, particularly the mercurial Irish, don’t see it that way as the jumping scene in England and Ireland is far more glamourous, effectively having their own season over the winter peppered with outstanding horses.
Vauban’s trainer Willie Mullins is one of the all-time great trainers of jumpers and has never been scared to mix jumping with flat racing, remarkably predicting Vauban could be a Melbourne Cup horse after he won a hurdle race at the famous Cheltenham Festival in March 2022.
“He strikes me as a Melbourne Cup horse, not this year but in 2023,” said Mullins 20 months ago.
So far, so genius, for Mullins and Vauban.
After a handy 18 months when he was just behind the absolute best hurdlers in the United Kingdom, Vauban came back to flat racing this June and immediately won at Royal Ascot by seven lengths.
That alone would be impressive but his own stablemate. Absurde finished second and then went on to win the Ebor, one of England’s great staying races and an ideal Melbourne Cup form guide because of its similar conditions.
So Vauban has beaten the Ebor winner by seven lengths and all that left Mullins to do was win a qualifying race to get him into today’s Cup without copping too much extra weight for the handicapper.
He did that in the Ballyroan Stakes at Naas on September 7 when he easily beat Valiant King, who subsequently came to Melbourne and finished sixth in the Caulfield Cup.
That left Vauban with only a few boxes to tick and he proved he has travelled well with a stunning track gallop at Flemington last week when he again thrashed Absurde.
He looks big, strong and extremely fit so today’s 55kg weight shouldn’t bother him, he has the ability to race handy from his low draw and he gets the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore, who rode him in his Ascot stunner.
While rain at Flemington today would suit him by disadvantaging some of his rivals, Mullins is confident Vauban will handle a good track, as he did at Ascot.
So if you are looking for a good reason to not back Vauban, you could still be looking in vain when the Cup jumps at 5pm tomorrow.
Still, any 3200m handicap boasting 24 starters has an array of possibilities and there are several horses, particularly in the top half of the field, who could win without surprise.
Gold Trip is the defending champion but that means he has to carry 58.5kgs, so he will need all of Kiwi jockey James McDonald’s magic.
Without A Fight was brave winning the Caulfield Cup and can do the double but there are still some doubts over his 3200m credentials while Soulcombe gives ex-pat New Zealand trainer Chris Waller a chance if he can begin on level terms, which has been an issue lately.
Absurde must be a hope, as an Ebor winner carrying just 53kgs and with Zac Purton in the saddle while an x-factor horse who must be respected on recent international form is Breakup.
He is the only Japanese horse in the Cup and the Japanese horses have been been imperious this year, winning mega money races in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and just last Saturday in Sydney, when Obamburumai won the A$10million Golden Eagle.
Breakup was a one-paced eighth in the Caulfield Cup but would be better suited by the bigger, firm track today and will relish the step up to 3200m as he finished 4th in one of Japan’s elite staying races the Tenno Sho earlier this year.
But no matter what angle you look at tomorrow’s Cup from, Vauban is the hurdle all his rivals have to overcome.
Michael Guerin’s Melbourne Cup Tips
1: Vauban (No.5)
2: Without A Fight (No.3)
3: Soulcombe (No.6)
4: Breakup (No.4)
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
