Labour gains support after capital gains tax announcement, but not enough to form Government

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (left) and Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Labour has gained support in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, rising 2.1 points on last month’s poll to 33.3%.

The poll is the first public poll to be published since Labour announced its capital gains tax policy, which has led the party to several election defeats.

However, Labour’s surge is not enough to offset declines on the left, meaning the current Government would retain office if an election were held today.

National is up 0.6 points to 30.2%, the Greens fell 2.8 points to 9.2%, NZ First is down 1.5 points to 9.1%, Act is up 2 points to 8.6% and Te Pāti Māori is down 1.1 point to 3.3%.

This would give National 39 seats, Act 11 seats and NZ First 12 seats – a total of 62 seats and enough to govern.

Labour would get 42 seats and the Greens would get 12 seats.

The poll assumes Te Pāti Māori or ex-Te Pāti Māori MPs retain their seats, giving that group six seats.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has gained support as preferred Prime Minister, rising 1 point to 20.8%. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has dropped marginally, falling 0.3 points to 20.6%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters is down 1.4 points to 8.5%, Act leader David Seymour is up 3.7 points to 7.7% and Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.2 points to 4.1%.

Hipkins has favourability of -2%%, unchanged from the last poll. Luxon’s favourability has lifted 4 points to -10%.

The poll has a margin of error on 3.1% and was conducted between Sunday 02 and Thursday 06 November 2025.