Increasing temperatures could enable future farmers to grow kiwifruit as far south as Gore.
Whether that would be a good thing was another matter entirely, experts have told the Climate Change and Governance conference, a two-day, Victoria University-organised gathering of scientists and policy makers being held in Wellington.
For Southland
to become New Zealand's fruitbasket would take a substantial rise in average temperatures, with impacts throughout the country.
Before Te Puke growers tore up their vines and moved south they would also have to consider the soil and rainfall suitability, said Professor Blair Fitzharris of the University of Otago's Department of Geography.
The changing face of New Zealand agriculture would be just one of the impacts of climate change, Professor Fitzharris told the conference. While the country should have no difficulty feeding itself, finding the water to ensure the soil remained fertile - especially on the east coast - would be a major issue.
New Zealand had already done a great deal to mitigate climate change in a global sense through measures such as trying to meet Kyoto Protocol obligations, Professor Fitzharris said. However, decision makers needed to be more proactive in adapting to the demands of climate change.
As New Zealand became warmer, it would have impacts on ecosystems in alpine and snow and ice areas, eastern native forests, and national parks. As animals and plants in coastal areas moved to flee rising water levels, existing park boundaries might need to be redrawn, he said.
Coastal communities, especially in Northland and the Bay of Plenty, would also be threatened by rising sea levels. In other areas, such as low-lying areas in the east of New Zealand, too little water rather than too much would be a problem in the years ahead, he said.
Professor Fitzharris' comments were echoed by Dr David Wratt, the leader of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's National Climate Centre.
Scientists predicted extreme weather patterns would become more extreme, Dr Wratt said - heavy rain would be denser and stronger, and droughts would be more frequent and more severe.
