Farmers in Whanganui and Rangitīkei prepared for dry conditions but financial climate still challenging

Robert Ervine says it's been "a tough, knuckle-down season" in the sheep and beef industry. Photo / Bevan Conley

The warm, dry summer is expected to continue but farmers in the wider Whanganui region are well prepared.

Niwa principal scientist Chris Brandolino said dry areas were emerging across Whanganui, Rangitīkei and down through Manawatū.

“Farmers need to be mindful of that,” he said.

“When we work our way into February in particular, we could start to see more persistent dryness emerge as we get close to and after Waitangi Day.”

Brandolino said that pattern was expected to stretch into autumn.

Federated Farmers Whanganui president Robert Ervine said there was good rain over Christmas and New Year and 15-20mm last Saturday during Whanganui Vintage Weekend.

“It was a bugger for that but it was great for farming. Things were starting to get dry again but that was a good top-up.

“I think guys are in a really good place. They listened to the weather forecasts, got a lot of feed on hand and they’re prepped.”

Ervine said while it would not be an amazing season, payouts were improving in the dairy farming sector.

“Production-wise, [farmers] are going pretty well. They have a plan and they’re working to it.

‘Yes, it could be dry but it always gets dry at the end of January and early February.”

Brandolino said the online Drought Forecasting Dashboard - a partnership between Niwa and the Ministry for Primary Industries - was a useful tool.

“That predicts where dryness or even drought may emerge over the coming five weeks.

“It’s updated every afternoon and in weekly chunks, it predicts if rainfall will be at, below or above normal.”

He said the whole country would experience above-average temperatures for the next three months.

“It doesn’t mean every day will be warm, though. We’re having a couple of days of cooler weather right now.

“As I like to tell people, even a good marriage has a couple of bad weeks. It doesn’t define the period.”

While dairy farmers were feeling positive, the mood was not so rosy in the sheep and beef industry, Ervine said.

“Every time a lamb leaves the farm, it takes dollars with it.

“They are going through the equivalent of dairy’s 2014/15 bad payout season. Lamb prices have just been diabolical.”

Federated Farmers Whanganui president Robert Ervine. Photo / Bevan Conley

He said Australia was culling ewe numbers, meaning less lamb would come out of that country next year.

“Hopefully, prices will come back to level to break even or make a profit.

“That being said, it’s been a tough, knuckle-down season.”

Federated Farmers Manawatū-Rangitīkei president Ian Strahan said farmers needed $110-$120 per lamb but they were only getting $80-$90.

“A lot of them are holding out to try and get more weight on and value out of it while there’s a bit more grass.

“Northern Rangitīkei has had a lot of rain so people still have options, which is great.”

Whanganui Rural Community Board deputy chairman Grant Skilton, who operates farms at Pākaraka and Westmere, said he was “definitely on the lookout for rain”.

Hot, humid weather meant more risk of facial eczema on cattle.

“We had a good to reasonable summer up until New Year but things have certainly dried here on the coast,” he said.

Skilton, who runs pig farming business Aorere Farms, said from a business perspective, it had been a challenging 12 months because costs had “gone sky-high”.

“The market is okay at the moment because a lot of people have gone out of business, therefore there is a shortage of pork.

“Some people pulled the plug because of uncertainty around where welfare regulations are going.”

While weather conditions were manageable at the moment, other factors had an impact on the industry, Strahan said.

Interest rates were not “going anywhere”.

“There is still cost inflation going on. It’s costing more and more to produce.

“It’s still knife-edge stuff. There’s potential for big profits or big losses.”

Skilton said the rural sector was not exempt from challenges facing the entire community, such as significant rates rises.

“Some of that is due to the huge inflation in roading costs and there is a lot of expectation in terms of maintaining the roads we’ve got.

“I think the scenario most farmers understand is that if you want higher levels of service, you‘ve got to be prepared to pay more.

“Therefore, maybe they can put up with a little bit, rather than really push the rates.”

Mike Tweed is an assistant news director and multimedia journalist at the Whanganui Chronicle. Since starting in March 2020, he has dabbled in everything from sport to music. At present his focus is local government, primarily the Whanganui District Council.