More recently it refers to a situation that is extremely difficult or dangerous where there are many problems, and an important decision must be made.
And even more recently it is being used to refer to the cost of living which, given that it is unlikely to come down, should be becoming accepted as “situation normal”.
The natural resilience of people is coming into play, budgets are being adjusted and a rethink is occurring while we watch global interest rates fall.
The US Federal Reserve midpoint was reduced to 4.875% (range 4.75-5.0%) last week.
In August inflation was back to 2.5%, so the Federal Reserve claimed success and decided to liberate the economy before a recession hits and unemployment escalates beyond the current 4.3%.
Although the Bank of England is currently holding at 5%, there are already suggestions other banks will follow the Federal Reserve’s move.
New Zealand’s inflation has fallen to 3.3% - half that of two years ago - and the official cash rate is 5.25%, down from 5.5% in July.
Technically a recession has been avoided, but unemployment has increased to 4.6%.
Debate about what should be done continues.
The conundrum for all countries is to balance interest rates, inflation and unemployment in the knowledge people are being affected, some negatively, whatever happens.
And “crisis” will stay in the media in its new and incorrect meaning, thereby continuing the angst, uncertainty and concern.
Green shoots of sense are appearing with spring.
The Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor (August 2024) shows although cost of living is still the number-one concern, the proportion of New Zealanders identifying this as a key issue has dropped to 56% - the lowest since May 2022.
Healthcare is the second most important issue, increasing significantly to 40% from 31% in May.
And concern about the economy is back in the top three for the first time since February 2021, at 29% (in comparison with 27% in May).
The results from the Ipsos Issues Monitor support the current Government’s approach - boost the economy by doubling the value of exports and improving infrastructure so that it can then put more money into healthcare (and police and social welfare and mental health and sport and everything else that appears on the list).
Listen to Jamie Mackay interview Dr Jacqueline Rowarth on The Country below:
In order to do that, barriers to productivity gains must be overcome - hence the Government’s roll-back of some regulations, creation of fast-tracks to approval for some initiatives and changes such as the reconsideration of genetic technologies to bring us into line with other countries.
Education was ninth in the Ipsos monitor (10%) but the news last month that less than a quarter of Year 8 students meet the maths benchmark and almost two-thirds are a year behind should be cause for alarm.
This figure was 28% at Year 6 and 20% at Year 3, indicating some improvement from a very low starting point.
But in reading, the standards seemed to decline with time in the classroom: 47% of students at Year 8 were meeting curriculum expectations, 52% at Year 6, and 54% at Year 3.
The Government’s focus on changes in education is clear.
Education needs investment, from teaching qualifications through the school and university system.
And signals are needed about which subjects are most valuable in the workplace (such as maths and literacy) to help the teachers achieve progress.
The same applies for the workforce - signals need to be sent by the Government about which disciplines are needed for sustainable economic development.
The answer globally appears to be people qualified in the Stem (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects.
A new report from the US-based National Academies points out the battle for Stem people is global and the US must sort out domestic education to ensure a supply for the workforce.
New Zealand needs to do the same.
And fund what is needed.
In its newsletter in August, independent research group Berl (Business and Economics Research Ltd) wrote: “The White House announced a US$99 billion investment in science and technology research.”
This is in comparison to the New Zealand science and technology research environment, which is reporting budget cuts in real terms.
Berl went on to state: “Maintaining our competitive advantage, as well as increasing our productivity, in the primary sector will depend on a strong partnership between the Government, universities, other Crown entities, and industry bodies.”
Urgent signals are needed to those making education and career decisions so that they choose the areas which support the productive economy.
Increased income to the country will flow through public and private coffers, enabling greater investment in the ever-growing list of needs.
Getting this right will enable an economic crisis to be averted - and improving the healthcare system should prevent some of the issues connected with the original meaning as well.
