Beef + Lamb NZ report: National lamb crop up as ewe performance lifts

Farmers are likely to retain more lambs to rebuild flocks after hard seasons. Photo / Duncan Brown

New Zealand’s national lamb crop for the 2025–26 season is estimated at 19.66 million head, up 1% on last year, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s latest Lamb Crop report.

The increase — 188,000 more lambs than last season — is driven by stronger ewe performance across most regions.

The national ewe lambing percentage rose to 131.1%, up 3.7 percentage points on last year.

This offset earlier expectations of fewer lambs tailed following a 1.9% drop in breeding ewe numbers.

All regions reported higher lambing percentages except the northern North Island, where dry summer-autumn conditions affected feed levels and ewe condition.

Beef + Lamb NZ chairwoman Kate Acland said the lift in the lamb crop was a welcome boost after two challenging seasons.

“Despite tough weather conditions in parts of the country, farmers have achieved a strong lambing performance, which is a great result,” she said.

“More saleable lambs than previously forecast will provide a good boost to farm revenue, particularly with global demand for lamb holding firm.

“However, the overall number of lambs processed in the 2025–26 season is forecast to be around 17.07 million head, about the same as in 2024-25, when the number processed was down just over a million head.

“So, supply is likely to remain relatively tight.”

Acland said part of the reason was that some lambs would be retained to rebuild ewe numbers in areas affected by adverse weather.

Farmers have indicated strong first-quarter processing intentions, with more lambs expected to head to processors between October and December.

Global lamb supply remains tight, supported by an expected 5.8% reduction in Australian export lamb availability and continued low New Zealand supply.

This, combined with strong demand for sheepmeat, is keeping farmgate prices at historically high levels.

“The sector remains cautiously optimistic,” Acland said.

“Prices are holding, demand is strong, and farmers have sensibly focused on areas they can control.

Acland said Beef + Lamb NZ was not blind to the wider pressures.

“Seasonal uncertainty, land-use change and regulatory headwinds continue to shape many on-farm decisions.

“Many farmers are keeping stocking policies flexible while exploring ways to lift performance, maintain resilience and build long-term business sustainability.”

Seasonal conditions over summer will remain an important factor.

Niwa’s outlook points to a moderate La Nina, with a risk of dry spells through late December and January alongside potential heavy rainfall events.

“We encourage farmers to prepare feed and water strategies for both dry conditions and potentially heavy rain events,” Acland said.

“Farmers know how quickly things can change.”

The Lamb Crop Report draws on data from more than 500 commercial sheep and beef farms nationwide.

Beef + Lamb NZ will publish an updated forecast in its Mid-Season Update in March 2026.