Government eyes farm drought relief

By KEVIN TAYLOR

The Government and Ministry of Agriculture officials are considering relief measures for drought-hit regions of the North Island.

A week ago Federated Farmers requested Government drought relief for Taranaki, Wanganui, Rangitikei, Manawatu, Horowhenua and Tararua.

Announcements on drought relief measures were not far off, said MAF senior policy analyst Chris Ward.

Parts of the lower North Island are suffering under the worst drought conditions in up to 30 years, with no end in sight despite recent rainfall.

Farmers in Manawatu and Rangitikei - said to be the worst-hit region in the country - face a grim winter with little feed and suspicions there may be a repeat drought next summer.

The drought is also expected to affect the country's growth forecasts.

Ward said that even if this month brought average rainfall it was unlikely to be enough for the drought-affected areas.

A "serious situation" would develop if there was less than average rainfall this month, he said. Low February and March rainfall in western and central North Island areas, particularly Manawatu and Wanganui, had created a drought that some say is the worst since 1970.

It has also been dry in Nelson, Marlborough, North Canterbury and Central Otago, but production has not been as affected as much as the North Island.

Ward said the drought had forced many dairy farmers in the western and central North Island to switch to milking only once a day and dry off part of their herds, and in some cases dry off their entire herds.

On top of the low dairy payout and cow prices falling by up to $500 a head, many farmers - particularly sharemilkers - are under increasing financial pressure.

Dairy farms from Rangitikei to Wellington are now 50 per cent behind last year's daily supply - and end-of-season production is expected to be between 10 and 20 per cent less than last year.

Ward said the impact on sheep and beef production was expected to be similar in affected regions.

The drought's intensity in the south of the North Island has been exacerbated by the cold spring, which resulted in less supplementary feed production than usual. Much of that feed has already been used.

The Manawatu-Rangitikei Federated Farmers president, Shelley Dew-Hopkins, said many farmers were already getting feed elsewhere - and paying high prices.

Recent rainfall had not been enough, and it was too late for some. One farm reported that despite having an inch of rain, the fields were "still like a dustbowl".

"We need 100mm plus of steady soaking rain to really get us back to a good level for spring. It's a worry."

Dew-Hopkins, a dairy farmer near Palmerston North, said most farmers had not been prepared for the drought in what was traditionally a reliable rainfall region.

Seminars are now being planned in the region next month for struggling farmers, covering financial and feed issues.

But Dew-Hopkins said the long-term worry was a similar drought next summer.

the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research senior climate scientist, Jim Salinger, said he could not say what would happen next summer until developments across the Pacific and Indian Oceans were known.

He said that at the start of last week there were "significant" soil moisture deficits in Wanganui and Manawatu, and extending towards Horowhenua and parts of the Wairarapa.

Hawkes Bay was drying out as well, and there were also big soil moisture deficits in South Canterbury, and a lot of North and Central Otago.

Salinger predicted that things should recover by the end of this month and early in May, although by that time much of the growing season will be over.

Federated Farmers national president Tom Lambie, who farms in drought-prone South Canterbury, said he had been on the ground in the lower North Island to assess the situation for himself.

"It's a significantly severe drought, but the farmers are handling it very well."

The managing director of rural services company Wrightson, Dr Allan Freeth, said the company's Manawatu operation had been hit, but farmers were better prepared and in a better financial position than during the 1997-98 drought.

That was because they had experienced two or three good seasons.

"Some farmers are under pressure but there has not been the type of feedback through the system that we had in 1997-98, the really bad drought years."

He said that in recent years Wrightson clients had become much better prepared for drought conditions generally.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen recently warned that the Sars virus and a raft of other bad economic news - including drought - would see growth forecasts cut in next month's Budget.

The drought is also starting to affect businesses relying on the rural economy.

Last week Tranz Rail released its preliminary third-quarter results, which showed its businesses had taken a significant hit, citing drought among other issues for failing to meet profit targets in the three months to the end of March.