The last time Michael Every spoke to The Country he painted a bleak picture of where the global economy was heading.

Today, as Every spoke to Jamie Mackay from the protest chaos of Hong Kong, it looked as though the predictions of Rabobank's Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific had come to fruition.

In fact, the outlook was so dire, Every said his previous interview was "one of my better forecasts".

"If you look at the incredible shift that you've seen, particularly in financial markets around the world in the past couple of months since we spoke last, I think you can see that more and more people who previously would've thought that I'd been gargling the bong water [would now say I] was actually on to something".

Rabobank's Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific, Michael Every. Photo / Supplied
Rabobank's Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific, Michael Every. Photo / Supplied

Every said the best way to track the turmoil was to keep an eye on what central banks were doing with interest rates, as they're supposed to be the "guardians of all that's good in the economy".

"You've seen interest rates slashed in New Zealand" said Every, who referred to a treasury report which suggested that "in a pinch" the overnight cash rate could be cut to -0.35 per cent.

"I think that backs up some of the gloomier forecasts I was making last time we spoke".

The protesting in Hong Kong should also be of concern said Every.

"What you're actually seeing is that Hong Kong is on the front line in this struggle that I spoke about last time, between the US and China".

"It's effectively a slice of the West which is located in China and as a result it's being pulled in two different directions".

Listen to the full interview below:

Every said if tensions escalated in Hong Kong between "Westernised" protesters and Chinese authority, it would have "an enormous impact on politics, on the global economy and on global financial markets".

Mackay asked how could the US China trade war affect New Zealand farmers.


In the grand scheme of things New Zealand, was "quite far down the food chain" said Every, but that didn't mean Kiwi farmers wouldn't be impacted, as there could be less demand for their goods and services.

"What you have to expect is that when you've got these two elephants trampling around, basically charging at each other, you may have moment of optimism ... you will get brief periods of calm - but effectively you are a very, very small player".

"You are green grass with two elephants fighting on top of you. The real risk is you do get trampled".