Let's face it, Gingernuts at Hastings tomorrow is the bet of the weekend.
The $1.80 the TAB have offered almost looks overs, even allowing New Zealanders do not like backing horses in the red (less than $2).
Had this $250,000 Livamol Classic been run two weeks ago, when it was rain delayed, Gingernuts would be one of the favourites for this afternoon's A$3m Caulfield Cup.
Forget there has been four weeks between runs - he showed with his gallop between races at Matamata last Saturday he is completely on song. Bad luck looks his biggest danger.
Similarly, Irish tourist Johannes Vermeer looks a great prospect in the Caulfield Cup. We'd all like to see the Kiwi pair Bonneval and Jon Snow quinella the Cup, but if you bet from an emotional level you'll end up with patches in your jeans. As much as Jon Snow was good finishing third and as much as Bonneval was not suited when finishing mid-field, the flashing light performance in last week's Caulfield Stakes was Johannes Vermeer's fast finish into a close second.
At Rotorua today Full In Bloom (No2, R3) can produce a big run fresh from a spell. She narrowly defeated the talented Untamed Diamond in a recent barrier trial at Ruakaka and Joanne Surgenor has shown many times she is capable of getting her horses to perform fresh from a break. Woodville visitor Bring To The Block (No2) is a work in progress, but has Jason Waddell to help. She can get home strongly and if Waddell can get her a passage from a slightly awkward barrier, she should be finishing into the money.
Maygrove (No1, R5) won this Jakkalberry Classic last year under 60kg topweight and there is no reason to believe he cannot do it again off the same mark. He is capable on all track conditions. Snow Secret (No4) looks the danger. She fought well when resuming at Ruakaka and comes in on just 53.5kg.
Romantic Maid (No7, R6) has previously won fresh and with two barrier trials behind her she looks a good prospect.
She has a touch of spark when in the right shape and in the ideal conditions she strikes today.
Splurge (No4, R7) started to make a real name for himself in the autumn. He failed in a couple of starts at the Brisbane winter campaign and was spelled. He resumes here and had a quiet trial at Avondale to prep for this. He has previously won in a fresh state. This will not be easy though with the likes of Scapolo (No2) and Natuzzi (No3) being much better off under the conditions of this race. Untamed Diamond (No8) and Volks Lightning (No9) are also right in the party. Splurge each way looks the bet and watch for Natuzzi to be storming home late.
Late in the day at Caulfield former New Zealand mare Shillelagh (No13, R9) looks a handy each way value. She resumed under Tye Angland in Sydney last start and had no luck. Joao Moreira takes over this time and the pair were unlucky not to score in a similar event on the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival last November.
The barrier is awkward again as it was that day, but she can rattle home and the long Flemington home straight lends itself to that type. One to beat is her Chris Waller stablemate Foxplay (No1), twice placed behind Winx this preparation, but she has 58.5kg topweight.
At Randwick, another Waller runner Kaonic (No6, R2) made a huge impression last start at Canterbury. He finished powerfully after seeming to be almost out of the race. He looks a Savabeel colt of real potential.
At Hastings tomorrow, Camino Rocoso (No8, R3) could bound back to form. He looked a 3-year-old of promise last season and should be even better this preparation. He will be a lot fitter for his first-up effort.
Trainer John Bary declared Miss Wilson (No9, R6) right at her best for the washed out Livamol day two weeks ago so, assuming nothing has forced her to go backwards, she should be very difficult to manage from an inside barrier tomorrow. She is very talented.
It is impossible to get out of your mind the finishing dash of improving mare Yearn (No13, R9) to win last start. She has only to produce something of the same to take a slightly better field this time. She looks headed for a tight assessment. Profile (No3) and Vinevale (No8) look good for multiples.