The Country
  • The Country home
  • Latest news
  • Audio & podcasts
  • Opinion
  • Dairy farming
  • Sheep & beef farming
  • Rural business
  • Rural technology
  • Rural life
  • Listen on iHeart radio

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • Coast & Country News
  • Opinion
  • Dairy farming
  • Sheep & beef farming
  • Horticulture
  • Animal health
  • Rural business
  • Rural technology
  • Rural life

Media

  • Podcasts
  • Video

Weather

  • Kaitaia
  • Whāngarei
  • Dargaville
  • Auckland
  • Thames
  • Tauranga
  • Hamilton
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Tokoroa
  • Te Kuiti
  • Taumurunui
  • Taupō
  • Gisborne
  • New Plymouth
  • Napier
  • Hastings
  • Dannevirke
  • Whanganui
  • Palmerston North
  • Levin
  • Paraparaumu
  • Masterton
  • Wellington
  • Motueka
  • Nelson
  • Blenheim
  • Westport
  • Reefton
  • Kaikōura
  • Greymouth
  • Hokitika
  • Christchurch
  • Ashburton
  • Timaru
  • Wānaka
  • Oamaru
  • Queenstown
  • Dunedin
  • Gore
  • Invercargill

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / The Country

Year in Review: Confessions of a climate change sceptic

The Country
7 Jan, 2019 06:00 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Dr Doug Edmeades. Photo / Supplied

Dr Doug Edmeades. Photo / Supplied

Year in Review: The Country kicked off 2018 with this controversial opinion piece from Dr Doug Edmeades that proved to be one of the most popular articles of the year.

OPINION: The Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has recently said that she would like her administration to be remembered by two things; the elimination of poverty and climate change – I assume that means a zero carbon economy.

Although I am not a rabid socialist I can understand the need for and hence can agree with policies which result in a more equitable distribution of wealth. I cannot however get my head around the idea of a zero carbon economy.

You see – I am a sceptic. But let me be very clear about what I mean. The word sceptic means "a person unconvinced by a particular fact, theory or hypothesis" And the hypothesis I am sceptical about is "That global temperatures are rising mainly due to mans activities, specifically via an increase on greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide)."

Yes the climate on earth is changing and indeed has always changed both up and down and long before mankind discovered fossil fuels, suggesting that some other mechanism(s) is (are) at play.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

This is consistent with the fact that the ice core data shows that temperature increases about 600 to 800 years before CO2 concentrations increase. CO2 does not, it appears, determine the earth's climate.

These facts are fatal to the dangerous man-induced (anthropogenic) global warming theory. And I could add to them many other contingent but relevant arguments. Yes CO2 is a greenhouse gas but water vapour makes up about 90% of the greenhouse effect and - this is important in the context of the supposed consensus - scientists are still arguing as to whether water vapour reduces or increases the CO2 warming effect.

Yes, since civilisation as we know it began about 10-12,000 years ago, it has been warmer (the Medieval Warm Period) and cooler (the Little Ice Age) than the present with ne'er a bag of coal or barrel of oil to be seen.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Yes sea levels have risen and glaciers have retreated as the earth has emerged from the Little Ice Age (approx. 1600-1800 AD) but there is no evidence that the rate of change in these processes has increased over the last 50 years, despite the fact that the CO2 concentrations have increased significantly.

More recently the satellite data shows that there has been no increase in global temperatures since 1998 – almost 20 years now - despite an increase in global CO2 concentrations.

I became exposed to this issue because I work with farmers and they would say to me – "you are a scientist – what do you think about global warming." Initially I would say "sorry not my specialty."

I came to see this as a cop-out and started reading. To clarify my thinking I then wrote a paper outlining the 10 reasons why I am a sceptic and I sent this paper to people on both sides of the argument, specifically inviting them to consider if there were any flaws in logic in my arguments. None were raised.

Discover more

Council's climate change stance 'not embarrassing'

31 Jan 10:45 PM
New Zealand

Grim global climate report: Drought, rising seas, millions displaced

28 Mar 04:00 PM

I continue to keep an eye out for any evidence that would contradict my logic. If anything I find that what is being offered to the public as evidence of human induced global warming is becoming increasingly fragile.

White plumes of gas from smoke stacks are not CO2, which is colourless and odourless. Pictures of air pollution in China are evidence of poor air quality and not CO2 induced global warming. The fact that polar bear numbers are increasing removes the emotional implication held in pictures of lonely isolated bears on ice flows.

And I am left infuriated (pre-whiskey) and bemused (post whisky), at the never ending pictures of extreme storm events, whether snow storms on the Eastern Seaboard of the USA or heat waves in NSW, purporting to be further evidence of man–induced global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that there is no evidence that extreme weather events are increasing as a consequence of global warming. Where is the fourth estate when we most need them?

And beware. The press is full of stories of a particular form: For example: an issue is identified – it may be to do with sea level rise, an endangered species, climate refugees, retreating glaciers or ice sheets breaking up. It is then predicted that the problem or issue will get worse because of global warming. The claims, if you read carefully, will, in all likelihood, be based on a desktop studies using predictions from climate models.

But remember models are not evidence. Models can be useful tools if they accurately predict the empirical (actual) evidence and none of the 90 odd climate models developed by scientists to date, have predicted the 20 years hiatus in warming that we are now experiencing. The normal practice in science in such circumstances is to set the models aside.

Finally I will leave you with a prediction: Because of the views expressed above I will be accused of being a "denier" and/or a "rejectionist". Just what it is I am rejecting or denying will not be spelt out but Mark Twain, that irascible American wit provides some comfort: "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Dr Doug Edmeades, MscHons, ONZM (Services to Agriculture), is an independent soil scientist based in Hamilton.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from The Country

The Country

Butter prices: Here’s how much they might still rise

09 May 05:03 AM
The Country

'Prime focus': Avocado industry targets global markets

09 May 03:08 AM
The Country

Watch: Deer's ill-fated dash to airport - 'I've hit the darn thing'

09 May 02:44 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from The Country

Butter prices: Here’s how much they  might still rise

Butter prices: Here’s how much they might still rise

09 May 05:03 AM

The price of butter could reach $9.50 by September.

'Prime focus': Avocado industry targets global markets

'Prime focus': Avocado industry targets global markets

09 May 03:08 AM
Watch: Deer's ill-fated dash to airport - 'I've hit the darn thing'

Watch: Deer's ill-fated dash to airport - 'I've hit the darn thing'

09 May 02:44 AM
Winston Peters' rugby days on The Country

Winston Peters' rugby days on The Country

09 May 02:02 AM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP