Winston Peters, free trade deals and farm votes – what’s really at stake in 2026 – Jamie McKay

Winston Peters’ FTA stance puts farm votes and coalition unity at risk in 2026. Photo / Mark Mitchell

THE FACTS

• The Government has agreed a comprehensive free-trade deal that eliminates or reduces tariffs on 95% of New Zealand’s exports to India.
• NZ First announced it would vote against the deal, citing concerns with concessions the deal grants on visa access to Indians and the poor dairy access New Zealand exporters got in return.
• Labour has indicated it may support the deal when it eventually comes to Parliament.

I often jest, when it comes to farming, that should a Labour-led coalition Government win back the Treasury Benches in 2026, it will be a matter of who, in the rush to the airport, is the last one to leave and turn the lights off.

That’s not to say the current coalition is one of picture-perfect harmony. The gloves have already come off as Winston Peters and David Seymour go toe to toe against one another while looking to simultaneously cannibalise the National vote in 2026.

Case in point is Winston’s blatant posturing over the Free Trade Agreement struck with India. The immigration clause doesn’t suit his narrative, so he’s thrown a NZ First spanner into the works.

When a country of five million people goes to the bargaining table with the most populous nation on earth, you’re never going to get everything you want. We were never going to get a deal on dairy, but this FTA will be great for the likes of sheep meat, horticulture and forestry. So important at a time when Donald Trump’s tariffs are putting up so many global trade roadblocks.

One thing you can say about Luxon’s Lot, except when Winston gets the huff, is they are farmer-friendly. They have jettisoned a lot of Labour’s unworkable policies around the ill-fated He Waka Eke Noa, emissions pricing, RMA compliance, consenting, water quality and infrastructure.

The class of 2023 saw the Nats bring in several useful rural/farmer MPs, such as Suze Redmayne (supposedly the richest MP in the House), Dana Kirkpatrick, Miles Anderson, Mike Butterick and Grant McCallum. Then there’s the likes of Nicola Grigg, a second-termer, who was initially more famous for being Richie McCaw’s old girlfriend, but these days is better known for making a good fist of being the Minister of Horticulture.

Act has former Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard (already a minister in his first term) and Mark Cameron, the gusty Kaipara cow cocky who not only battles woke ideology but also a potentially terminal kidney condition.

Winston has the underrated South Otago farmer Mark Patterson and the omni-present and effervescent Matua Shane Jones. The self-anointed Prince of the Provinces’ dislike of the Greens is only surpassed by his disdain for blind frogs, skinks and lizards who dare to stand in way of one of his diggers!

So, this is a government for farmers.

Now, if this looks like a bit of a propaganda puff piece from an anti-leftist, right-wing ranter, it’s worth noting my family, farming and political pedigree.

My farming grandfather, Hugh, after the hell of Gallipoli and the Western Front, turned into somewhat of a pacifist, disliked authority, and hated the English (much more than the Turks) for sending so many men from the Antipodes to slaughter on the other side of the world. He was a liberal.

My farming father openly disliked the Rob Muldoon National Government of the day. And my mother, bless her, had a strange affinity with Bruce Beetham and the (long since defunct) Social Credit party.

I also grew up with two liberal, left-leaning sisters who gravitated to the arts scene, while I went the commerce/accounting way.

They protested against the 1981 Springboks while, as a young farmer at the time, I wanted to play for Southland against them. My sisters love Dame Jacinda and Chloe.

As you can imagine, family gatherings such as Christmas dinners can be a bigger minefield than anything my grandfather faced at the Somme!

Parents can be cruel. Gullible and trusting, I followed mum and voted Social Credit for my first two elections, followed by a protest vote for Bob Jones and the New Zealand Party in 1984.

I was so disillusioned by politics in 1987, following on from the thrashing the Lange-Douglas Labour Government gave farmers, I never got out of the clubrooms after rugby in time to cast my vote.

It wasn’t until 1990, and the return home of an impressive young Southland farmer, Bill English, from a high-powered job in the Treasury, that I could bring myself to vote National.

Despite the pain caused by the neo-liberal Roger Douglas reforms of the 1980s, I still regard him as a visionary and ultimately a friend of farming, for dumping subsidies. He just went about it the wrong way. Far too hard and far too early. Muldoon did a heck of a lot more damage to the country in the previous regime!

Which brings me back to the current Labour Party and the prospect of a coalition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. On current polling, with Labour and Chris Hipkins riding high, it’s not out of the question.

Who would be the visionaries and the friends of farmers in that Labour-led coalition? The jury’s out on that one (but good on you Chippy, if you support the Indian FTA).

And the jury’s certainly out on how 2026 will play out – politically, economically, and on the sports paddock (how good will that four-test match tour against the Springboks be?)

A shout-out. Remember, while many of us are busy hitting shopping malls, golf balls and beaches over the festive break, tens of thousands of farmers will be waking at sparrow’s fart each day to milk cows, muster sheep and pick crops.

A special shout-out to Trade Minister Todd McClay. Winston might not think so, but you’re my New Zealander of the Year.

And finally, my politician of the year?

He’s 80. Has boundless energy. Both on the domestic and international stages. He’s been around since Muldoon. He’s contrary. He’s cantankerous. He’s Winston.