An aerial view of Papamoa with Mauao in the background. Photo/Andrew Warner
Populations in about 44 of the country's 67 authorities will stagnate or decline within 30 years, compared with 11 areas now, according to a new report by the Maxim Institute.
And while Tauranga and the Western Bay of Plenty were among areas where growth was expected to continue, other regions - including Rotorua and Taupo - could stagnate, placing them under financial strain in keeping up with infrastructure and other demands.
Read more: Moves to double Tauranga parking costs
Western Bay business leaders said the report indicated the sub-region was already heading in the right direction.
Meanwhile, Rotorua mayor Steve Chadwick said demographic decline had been a key driver of the Rotorua 2030 Vision strategy set in 2013, and GDP and population growth indicated the city was already heading in the right direction.
The report criticised the government's regional development programmes for focusing solely on economic growth.
"We are really only experiencing the beginning of a 'death by a thousand cuts' for many regional towns," wrote the report's author Julian Woods.
"Regional development goals that simply aim to maximise a region's economic growth potential are inadequate for this future.
"Spatial or place-based regional development policy is increasingly going to be key to facing this new future."
Nigel Tutt, chief executive of economic agency Priority One, said generally the Western Bay could be happy it was not expecting to suffer the negative population shifts predicted for some regions.
"The zombie town concept is much less of a problem here, which is great."
Mr Tutt said the Western Bay's approach was in line with the report's recommendations.
"I think we do a pretty good job here. The governance side is well looked after with Smart Growth, the Regional Growth Study, and the Bay of Connections regional economic strategy. That allows us a lot of cohesion in our long-term planning right across the Bay, which is why you're seeing some of our spatial and roading projects go relatively smoothly."
The zombie town concept is much less of a problem here, which is great.
Bay of Connections portfolio manager Cheryl Lewis said the region's development goals across the portfolio were clearly stated in various action plans, and included different indicators depending on the sector.
"The current value and potential future of the Maori economy in this region, across a range of sectors, will also be a key contributor to our growth prospects," she said.
"Through the work of the Bay of Connections we tend to avoid a cookie-cutter approach to regional development, and already recognise each region needs to adapt to its unique challenges and opportunities."
Tauranga Chamber of Commerce chief executive Stan Gregec said a key question for the region was how to ensure it continued to attract people and investment.
"In my view, the answer is to avoid becoming another Auckland," he said.
"That means we need to get on top of our current transport woes more than anything else, and put in place the infrastructure and city amenities that will make this an attractive place to operate from as an employer."
Mr Gregec said Tauranga needed to find the ability to invest in its future as well as reacting to growth as it happened.
"Some smart public-private partnerships would be a good start, as well as leveraging iwi investment potential and the infrastructure development fund the Government is offering."
Mrs Chadwick said Rotorua was aware of the dangers of putting all its eggs in one development basket, and this month was refreshing the Vision 2030 strategy. The objectives had been to create a diverse economy, strong culture and protected environment, she said.
"It's a good thing to have that critical analysis and ask whether we got those things right," she said.
"The Maxim report is saying we can't sit back and do nothing. But we seem to be bucking these demographic and economic trends."
Key report recommendations include:
- Customised regional development pathways should be developed in light of the economic and demographic change on New Zealand's horizon.