Dramatic temperature swings, fire risk and more wind are on their way as El Niño comes to Whanganui.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) has released its seasonal climate outlook for October to December.
Niwa principal scientist Chris Brandolino said farmers and people on tank water should think about a plan in case dryness emerged where they lived.
Temperatures are likely to be in the average or above-average category - with an equal chance for either category.
“If you get those days when the wind is blowing strong and the temperatures are really warm, the humidity is low, you know those will be the periods where we get some elevated risks for fire danger,” Brandolino said.
He said areas such as Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne had the most elevated risk, but fire risk still existed for Whanganui.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) district manager Nigel Dravitzki said this year’s fire season would be quite an increase on previous years, which were below normal.
“Australia is already experiencing really warm temperatures over there, and that’s quite early,” Dravitzki said.
“The phenomenon of the impact of climate change is definitely upon us.”
He said Fenz was encouraging people, especially in semi-rural areas, to mitigate the potential for fire risk.
“Keep flammable materials away from the house and other structures, make sure gutters are clear and keep all your accessways clear so when emergency services arrive they can get in.
“When you’re lighting a fire, I’ve always said if you’ve got some doubt yourself: don’t.
“You need to think ahead to: is this a large fire? Will the embers stay around for a period of time? If the wind picks up, bits of pieces can spread later on.”
Brandolino said “pretty wild temperatures” were expected.
He said it would be similar to Whanganui’s changing weather this week, with frosty conditions on Wednesday morning shifting to unusually warm days on Thursday and Friday.
“There’ll be pretty dramatic temperature swings and I think this week is a good example of that.
“That kind of variability where we go from pretty unusually chilly to warm, and we do that with some regularity. I think that will be a theme a lot of people will notice.
“There’s not going to be a lot of middle ground.”
Brandolino said the temperature variability was likely to continue into summer.
Less large rainfall events were expected because El Niño’s cousin, the Indian Ocean Dipole, was in a strong positive phase.
“It really reduces the odds that there will be moisture of any significance,” Brandolino said.
“But you just need one big rainfall event to really change things.”
Brandolino said the weather set-up, with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, would enhance the wind and make it stronger.
“I know this time of year is typically a bit of a windy time anyway, but we’ll find these periods where it’s quite windy and windier than usual.”
He said the windier weather would stretch past the rest of the calendar year and probably into the summer months.
Eva de Jong is a reporter for the Whanganui Chronicle covering health stories and general news. She began as a reporter in 2023.