Tasman is “absolutely saturated” and can’t take any more wet weather, the district’s deputy mayor has warned ahead of a tropically-charged deluge expected to drench the flood-hit top of the South Island tomorrow, with up to 150mm of rain forecast.
Heavy rain warnings have also been issued for Bay of Plenty, and strong wind and heavy rain watches for Auckland, Northland and Coromandel tomorrow.
In Tasman district, where flooding last Friday damaged homes, roads and cost hop farmer Peter Lines his life during clean-up efforts, authorities were doing everything they could to prepare, deputy mayor Stuart Bryant told Ryan Bridge on Herald NOW this morning.
But residents were understandably “apprehensive”, Bryant said.
“The ground everywhere is absolutely saturated and it’s like a sponge, it just can’t take any more.”
About eight residents in the Old Mill Rd (Brooklyn) area and 10 to 15 residents on the lower side of the main road in Tapawera have been warned they may need to evacuate, and “all the contractors we can get our hands on” - including from outside the area - were working to clear debris from roads and rivers.
There was a particular focus on clearing debris around bridges, which affected river flows, Bryant said.
“That’s quite a concern in some areas.”
MetService forecaster Samkelo Magwala told the Herald a low was developing in the Tasman Sea and would move towards New Zealand late today and early tomorrow.
“It will result in heavy rainfall in the upper South Island as well as the central and upper North Island.
“The rain band will be accompanied by some thunderstorms and severe gales.”
For the top of the South Island, MetService has issued a heavy rain warning for the Tasman District northwest of Motueka from 3am to 6pm tomorrow.
“Expect 120 to 150mm of rain, but 150 to 200mm possible in localised areas, including the coast.”
A heavy rain warning has also been made for Tasman District about and southeast of Motueka, Nelson District, the Richmond and Bryant Ranges, including the Rai Valley, and the Marlborough Sounds from 6am to 9pm tomorrow.
Up to 110mm of rain could fall about the Sounds and ranges, and up to 80mm elsewhere, MetService said.
A heavy rain warning is also in place for Bay of Plenty from 8am tomorrow until the early hours of Friday, continuing to noon Friday in east of Whakatāne.
Rain and wind watches have been issued for Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula through tomorrow, with thunderstorms possible in Northland.
There is a heavy rain watch for Taranaki Maunga tomorrow and Tairāwhiti/Gisborne, north of Ruatoria, from 3pm tomorrow until noon Friday.
⚠️Warnings and Watches for Heavy Rain and Strong Winds have been issued for Thursday and into Friday.
— MetService (@MetService) July 1, 2025
Areas that were impacted last week are in the firing line yet again.
Check them out here: https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5@AucklandCDEM @AklCouncil @BOPCivilDefence @nztantm… pic.twitter.com/RLfqkJcstY
Strong wind and heavy rain watches are forecast in Auckland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel Peninsula from 9am until 3pm tomorrow.
Magwala said wind gusts could reach from 90-120km/h.
Emergency officials around Auckland are on alert before a stormy end for a second consecutive week, fearing flooding in parts.
Earth Sciences New Zealand meteorologist Chris Brandolino said an atmospheric river that stretched up to sub-tropical New Caledonia would sweep over much of the North Island and the top of the South Island in the coming days.
He said “beefy” thunderstorms were possibly set to hit Auckland during rush hour tomorrow, which would impact the evening commute.
There was also a threat of damaging winds to sweep over the region.
At the same time, it would be warm and muggy with temperatures in the high teens.
Despite it being the middle of winter, an arriving plume of moisture from the subtropics will make it feel fairly humid (🟢) in the upper North Island on Thursday and Thursday night, with less humidity by Friday. pic.twitter.com/oXq6lrb8OQ
— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) July 1, 2025
People may want to do outdoor activities with their children during the school holidays, but “I would avoid that for much of the country, upper South Island, much of the North Island”, Brandolino said.
“I would avoid Thursday certainly, I would avoid Friday and I might even avoid Saturday.”
The Waikato Regional Council has already moved to increase the water level of the Waikato River before the incoming storm.
“This measure is being undertaken to create additional capacity within the Waikato hydroelectric system in preparation for anticipated heavy rainfall later this week,” the council said in a Facebook post.