Tim Gilbertson: The end of the world is at hand

Tim Gilbertson

The end of the world is at hand.

Scientists warned decades ago of catastrophic climate change if carbon exceed 400 parts per billion and global temperatures increased by 2 degrees above pre industrial levels.

Both have come to pass. Despite these warnings, world leaders are investing in guns, not trees.

The latest US aircraft carrier cost $16 billion. Gun powder made castles obsolete.

Muskets made Pa obsolete. Drones have made battleships obsolete, but that hasn't stopped the arms race.

Some 12 million people are scheduled to die of drought and war induced famine in the next few months. Despite this writing on the wall, USA's President Trump has cut foreign aid and massively increased defence spending, as have Putin of Russia and China's Xi.

International folly on a grand scale. The scientist's doomsday scenarios are backed up by historians, not that many people pay them any attention. Between 1934 and 1961, Professor Arnold Toynbee, once famous and now less so, wrote a massive 12 volume study of the rise and fall of the 23 current and past human civilisations.

A major cause of decline was the abuse of the environment, lack of inspired leadership, and the rise of selfish wealthy urban elites. Sounds familiar. It is a grim scenario so best not to think about the dodgy future we are bequeathing our children.

Instead consider the Port of Napier. The port needs one hundred thousandth of the cost of an aircraft carrier, about $100 million, for maintenance and improvements. They need to borrow against the asset or sell a share to an outsider.

Borrowing the money would reduce the payments that fund the Regional Council resulting in increased rates or reduced services. Selling shares would get the cash needed for redevelopment and reduce the impact when the next earthquake, tsunami or whatever hits.

Lyttleton and Wellington Ports have been devastated recently and one day it will be our turn to cry. But that option could be political suicidal especially for Councillors who swore black and blue that the Port was sacrosanct and must never be touched .Especially when it came to heretical proposals like water storage in CHB. There would need to be much squirming before the worms turned.

A good option would be to sell a thirty to forty per cent shareholding, giving residents of Hawkes Bay first crack at the share.

This would reduce financial and political risk and introduce a stronger commercial focus while keeping control firmly in local hands. This course of action is wildly unpopular especially in Napier where the Port has the status of a religious icon.

Napier MP Stuart Nash reflects the fanaticism. He is campaigning to lock up the port for ever in public ownership.

It is hard to have confidence in a grown man whose personal transport is a fire engine and the view that the port should be forever owned by Council appeals only if you also believe in Peter Pan and the tooth fairy.

But given Napier's infatuation with the port, it is understandable. Tukituki Labour candidate Anna Lorck has leapt aboard the tugboat.

She suggests that Unison fund the port. Why the power consumers of Hawkes Bay would want another low yielding moderately risky asset is hard to fathom.

It is a political headline grabber but, like the Nash proposition, as sensible as free money and flat mountains. It is a sobering thought that this level of debate may govern the country in a few months time. Although to be fair their views are no wackier than those of the present incumbents.

The port is a crucial link in the regional economy and deserves serious consideration rather than self interested posturing.

The Wellington port is considering its future and they has just been handed a large insurance cheque. There are operational and financial gains if both ports work in tandem. If we look outward rather than inward we could do a deal that would help everyone.

Some years ago there was a proposal to sell a share in the port to fund the RWSS and water storage on the Heretaunga plains. The increase in through put would rapidly compensate for the reduced ownership in the port and the benefits to the wider community would be long term and huge.

That was a long-term plan that made sense then and still does today. One of the benefits of the RWSS is the 6.5 megawatts of renewable energy the dam will produce.

If we moved to electric cars, that would power the Hawkes Bay fleet. The port debate will indicate clearly whether we can solve serious issue in a mature and logical. Or whether, like world leaders, we will continue to bicker and squabble amongst ourselves while opportunity waves us farewell.

It will be interesting to observe our elected representatives who face the interesting choices between being true leaders or secret wannabe aircraft carrier constructors.

Tim Gilbertson is a farmer, former mayor of Central Hawke's Bay and former Hawke's Bay regional councillor. His column appears every fortnight on a Saturday. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.