Tararua District spring weather looking to be warm

The seasonal outlook shows temperatures could be warmer than average. Photo / Leanne Warr

The Tararua District could be looking at warmer-than-average temperatures toward the middle of spring, according to Niwa.

However, the early part of spring will still have a fair bit of variability, says National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) principal scientist (forecasting and media) Chris Brandolino.

He says the first half of this month is probably not going to be a reflection of the spring season as a whole.

“It may be a bit of an outlier compared to what spring eventually turns out to be when we look at it in totality.”

Last week Dannevirke recorded 24.1C on one day, but temperatures plummeted again the next day.

Brandolino says this was Dannevirke’s warmest September temperature since records went back to 1951.

As for the seasonal climate outlook, he says we could expect a warmer-than-average season, but it didn’t mean that every day of the season is going to be warmer than average.

“It just means that’s the theme.

“We try to identify what the themes are over the next three months.”

Essentially what it means for the seasonal outlook is that there will still be cold snaps.

“Spring is that season where we have some wild swings with weather and temperature,” Brandolino says.

He says rainfall is also expected to be at the normal range or below normal and a wetter-than-average spring was looking “pretty unlikely”.

“If there’s going to be a dry spring, it’s the east of both islands that will experience that.”

There is still a 50% chance of La Nina taking hold by the end of spring, but even if it didn’t formally develop by the end of the season, it was expected that La Nina patterns will emerge, bringing a high-pressure system over the country and a propensity for warmer and drier weather.

“That’s one reason why we have landed where we have landed for places like Dannevirke, [and] east of the North Island, where we are expected to have this kind of leaning toward potential dryness but also feel pretty confident that temperatures will be warmer than average,” Brandolino says.

As we get into early October, he says there could be some extended spells of unusual spring warmth over the North Island.

For farmers, Brandolino says they will have to mindful of rainfall and encourages them to look at the Niwa website so they can keep track of weather forecasts, and use the drought prediction tool.

“This gives people an idea of what the next five weeks may hold in terms of rainfall and where dryness may emerge.”

He says the site has menus where farmers can select something such as rain.

“I think that’ll help farmers plan as we go through the upcoming growing season.”