Silver Ferns Farms livestock price outlook generally favourable

Low deer-industry kill volumes are continuing to support favourable prices. Photo / Stephen Jaquiery

Silver Fern Farms has released its new-season livestock-pricing outlook, while cautioning it is a current view based on current exchange rates and expectations of supply and demand.

Farmgate lamb prices were likely to remain buoyant over coming months. Key near-term variables were the exchange rate and demand post the shipments to China for their traditional Chinese New Year holiday period.

The company was confident that favourable lambing conditions across much of the country and a greater number of multiples would see stronger flows this season.

For the period from mid-November through to Christmas, farmgate pricing could range from $6-$7, dropping to $5.60-$6.20 by mid-season.

The outlook for mutton was also favourable on the back of strong demand out of China. Pricing could range from $4-$4.80 into early January, dropping to $3.50-$4 by mid-season after Chinese New Year.

The outlook for prime beef was favourable with firm pricing on prime cuts into China, the Middle East and the United States.

However, with fewer markets open - Japan's temporary 50% tariff duty effectively closing frozen exports from New Zealand - there could be some volatility. Pre-Christmas pricing could range from $5.20-$5.60, dropping to $4.80-$5.30 by autumn.

Bull pre-Christmas pricing could range from $4.80-$5.50, dropping to a $4.50-$5.20 range by autumn, while pre-Christmas pricing for cow could range from $3.80-$4.20 with main season pricing depending on key US market demand and competing lower-priced proteins.

Low industry kill volumes continued to support in-market venison prices and favourable farmgate prices.

The chilled export period was now coming to an end and values were expected to ease back from current levels, albeit not as sharply as usual, given strong demand across the board for frozen product as well. Farmgate pricing could range from $9-$9.80 after the current chilled season was completed.

In its latest market update, Silver Fern Farms said all sheepmeat markets, except the Middle East, remained very strong.

Prices were at near record levels and, given the market was finely balanced, it was treating the period with caution.

History suggested a key was whether consumers accepted higher price levels or turned to alternative, less expensive, protein options.

Pricing was being driven by very low inventory levels in New Zealand, Australia and with customers.

Mutton was at an all-time high price, driven by demand out of China and Taiwan. It was due to low Chinese domestic production and low inventories.