Shane Reti: US election - the power of the rural voter

The rural voter got Donald Trump across the line yesterday as he defeated Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House.

In 2008 I was invited to write an article for NZ Doctor describing the US election.

At the time I was working as Assistant Professor at Harvard University.

In that environment I was privy to the mood and expectations of Boston city as the first African American president was elected.

The atmosphere at the time was both excitement for the aspirations of a "thinking president" with a strong academic background, and excitement for change not only in healthcare, which is incredibly significant to most Americans, but change towards a truly united country.

This election is different. A few months ago I travelled back to rural Idaho where I have maintained many of my social networks from my time as a New Zealand Rotary Exchange student.

These are areas that have traditionally been considered as Republican states, mostly farming and generally conservative.

I had previously observed that many people in these areas vote in the traditions of their family and were generally more influenced by features of the candidate rather than policy.

In 2008 and 2012 much of the US presidential debate was around policy - healthcare, national security, global financial crises.

This year however, the debate is personal. Integrity is key, and this has forced many rural people to confront and reassess their traditional voting position.

My observations are that people in the rural parts of these states have become polarised by the current election debate and split into two camps.

In the first camp are those who have reaffirmed their traditional Republican voting preferences.

This election they will vote Republican as they always have, and likely always will.

In the second camp are those who, many for the first time, will change their voting preference and vote for the Democrats.

The reasoning I heard from this group is not that they support Hillary, but that they cannot support Trump for this election.

This group then becomes a "one time voting" cohort, fundamentally wanting to cleave to their traditional Republican roots but, for this election only, they will vote Democrat.

Having let the genie out of the bottle this new group of swing voters are likely to be a target for future elections.

By the time you are reading this article we will know who the next United States president is and what direction the country may take.

Our interests are in how this may affect us in New Zealand, and with a wider view, how this may affect worldwide peace, stability and prosperity.

- Dr Shane Reti QSM is also co-chair NZ/US Parliamentary Friendship Group.