OPINION
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins faces one of the most consequential moments of his premiership when he sits down for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing this evening (New Zealand time).
This, the first pilgrimage to Beijing since 2019, comes after three years of strained relations, and as the services exports languishes at half its pre-pandemic level (goods exports, which continued to grow, have compensated for the services crash).
China appears to be offering an olive branch. It’s fêting Hipkins on his visit and namechecking New Zealand’s independent foreign policy in state media in same way the way we do - as a fudge for our divergent trade and security policies. We’re utterly dependent on China for one, and utterly dependent on the Western security alliance (though we have only one formal ally) for the other.
But there are limits to that fudge: China is clearly anxious about New Zealand participating in pillar II of Aukus (whatever that is - not even the Americans seem to know), and they’re not keen on New Zealand persistently signing our names to other Western-led covertly anti-China initiatives, like the recent statement against economic coercion.
Tuesday’s meeting with Xi could offer a tantalising glimpse into what he thinks of the relationship, what China wants from us, and whether he too is satisfied with where we’ve landed after three years of strained relations.
In any country visiting heads of government will receive a warm welcome, often getting a motorcade with a couple of motorcycling outriders, a photo-op at a monument - that sort of thing.
But China is an altogether different story. On Sunday night, a lengthy motorcade wooshed Hipkins from Beijing airport to town. Authorities began clearing the motorway in the early afternoon , giving Hipkins a clear run in the usually gridlocked city. It was decked in Chinese and New Zealand flags (along with those of Vietnam, Barbados and Mongolia, whose leaders are also visiting).
The extraordinary manakitanga extends to Chinese state television, where you’ll find glowing propaganda on New Zealand exports. Read state newspapers, and you’ll see friendly coverage of the way New Zealand has handled the diplomatic relationship - the tabloid, The Global Times, said in a headline that New Zealand’s foreign policy “sets an example for other Western countries”.
One opinion column breathlessly, perhaps hopefully, proclaimed that New Zealand’s independent foreign policy, deployed correctly, could see us hew a different path to our traditional security partners, particularly the United States. The message seems to be the economic relationship can survive, if New Zealand is willing to play nice, the economic relationship can be preserved.
But there’s an obvious challenge here too. When one of those Western countries labels China a ruthless dictatorship, our government might question whether China saying that we set a good example is really something to be proud of.
A cartoon that ran alongside the column was even more explicit. Four cycloptic eyes marching in the direction of “anti-China” while one, garbed in a New Zealand flag, consults a map under a sign marked “trade”.
Some of this is for domestic consumption.
China is in the midst of a diplomatic push, trying to burnish its credentials as a leading superpower.
It negotiated the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran this year, playing the brokering role usually reserved for the likes of the United States. Beijing will host four world leaders this week: Vietnam, Mongolia, Barbados, and New Zealand.
All four are heading to “Summer Davos” a World Economic Forum jamboree in Tianjin. It’s all the blind hypocrisy of the original with added communism.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrey Rudenko is also in Beijing, and met China’s foreign minister Qin Gang, discussing the situation in Russia following the Wagner mutiny over the weekend.
The hosting of an endless stream of foreign visitors helps to establish the leadership to its people as a diplomatic power, and remind them the days of Covid-closed China are over.
But it’s not just for them - the welcome is for us too.
China seems keen for a bit of a reset, perhaps seeing Hipkins being subbed onto the field after Jacinda Ardern as a good opportunity to wind back the clock on a torrid 2022.
China hated the decidedly American statement issued after Ardern’s visit to the White House last year (they weren’t the only ones - former Prime Minister Helen Clark was also of the view that it was too American).
Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said at the time that China “firmly opposed” the New Zealand-US joint and accused Ardern and President Joe Biden of “deliberately” hyping the South China Sea issue, and that the US was indulging in the “bullying practice of projecting its own image and imposing its own will on to others”.
Ardern corrected that wobble, explaining in a series of speeches each delivered offshore, explaining the idea of a values-based independent foreign policy at Nato, Chatham House in London, and the Lowie Institute in Sydney.
The TLDR from those speeches: New Zealand is emphatically not a card carrying American ally, but makes decisions based on its values.
The huff being made of New Zealand and its independent foreign policy in Chinese media this week suggests the Chinese are keen to let on that they get it - and they’re willing to allow New Zealand to have it both ways... on some issues at least.
The Ardern values-based message seems to have cut through, and Hipkins is reaping the benefit of that.
That’s hoorah for exporters. New Zealand goods exports to China never really took a hit during the pandemic, but services exports - things like travel and education - took a hit and have never recovered. Services exports in the March 2023 quarter were $560m - about half the level they were in the same quarter in 2019.
China knows New Zealand is economically vulnerable. We have a gaping trade deficit - the difference between what we earn overseas and what we buy. It’s a problem we need to fix by selling more things at higher prices. China also knows New Zealand is keen to move from a goods exporting nation to one that exports services.
But if the last week, marked by dictator-gate and news of Nanaia Mahuta’s epic dressing down, has taught us anything, it’s that there are real limits to how far the values-based independent foreign policy can take us.
Chinese state media praised Hipkins for not being drawn into the debate of whether Xi is or is not a dictator. But that episode only exposed the challenge of the values-based fudge. Whether Xi is or is not a dictator is one thing, but Xi and the government he leads, and the political system that backs it up are very much not aligned with New Zealand’s values.
Hipkins knows this. In 2021, he was a member of the Parliament that passed a motion calling out Xi’s government for human rights abuses in Xinjiang.
A values-based, independent foreign policy and New Zealand’s utter commitment on China for trade are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Turning our collective back on anti-China rhetoric, as the Global Times cartoon depicts is one thing, but turning our back on “values” in favour of trade suggests the commitment to those values was pretty weak to begin with.
Thomas Coughlan is deputy political editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.