A long-range weather outlook for New Zealand forecasts a wetter and warmer next three months.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly Niwa) meteorologist Chris Brandolino said tropical weather patterns were expected to influence our climate in the lead-up to spring.
“[It would lead] to potentially significant rainfall and increased risk for flooding, particularly in already-saturated areas.”
Rainfall between July and September is expected to be above normal in the north of both islands, and near normal or above normal elsewhere. The exception is the West Coast of the South Island, where drier than usual conditions are possible.
According to the organisation’s data, the country’s highest three-month rainfall level, at 720mm, will be in Hokitika.
During the same period, an average of 370mm will fall in Kaitaia, 365mm in Auckland and 270mm will fall in Masterton.
In the South Island, an average of 250mm is forecast to fall in Nelson and 165mm is forecast to fall in Christchurch.
Brandolino said seasonal temperatures were forecast to be higher than average across every region during the next three months.
“So while cold snaps and frost will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual.”
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand’s figures, the highest average temperature during the next three months will be in Kaitaia at 12.7C.
The average temperature in Auckland is forecast to be 12C and 9.3C in Masterton.
In the South Island, the average temperature in Nelson is forecast to be 9C and 8C in Christchurch.
The Nelson and Tasman regions are preparing for another deluge of rain, less than a week after flooding plagued the districts.
MetService has issued a heavy rain warning for the Tasman District west of Motueka from 3am to 9pm on Thursday.
A heavy rain warning is also forecast for the rest of the Tasman District, Nelson District and western parts of Marlborough.
MetService forecaster Samkelo Magwala told the Herald the regions could be at risk of further flooding.
“Small amounts of general accumulation could result in floods.”
⚠️Warnings and Watches for Heavy Rain and Strong Winds have been issued for Thursday and into Friday.
— MetService (@MetService) July 1, 2025
Areas that were impacted last week are in the firing line yet again.
Check them out here: https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5@AucklandCDEM @AklCouncil @BOPCivilDefence @nztantm… pic.twitter.com/RLfqkJcstY
Nelson Tasman Civil Defence group controller Alec Louverdis told the Herald the region was still in the response phase after last week’s floods.
“We’re still trying to get infrastructure and lifelines updated and we’re still trying to deal with all the people who have been severely impacted,” he said.
Louverdis said the emergency management team was treating the upcoming heavy rain warning as the highest risk.
“If the event was on its own, it would be a different scenario. But on the back of what we have just experienced, we are taking absolutely no chances.”