MetService has issued a heavy rain warning and a swag of watches for wet weather across much of the North Island as a tropically charged low approaches.
The northeastern tip of the North Island – among areas pummelled by a deadly series of storms last month – is expected to be the worst hit, prompting Tairāwhiti Civil Defence to alert residents before the downpours.
“We know this is not what anyone wants to read whānau”, the agency wrote on Facebook late this morning.
“Be prepared. Clear your drains and gutters. Avoid low-lying areas and drive cautiously.”
Tairāwhiti was part of a swathe of the upper North Island affected by a series of storms last month which caused flooding and landslides that claimed the lives of nine people, including six campers at Mount Maunganui.
The rain is set to start falling from noon tomorrow across the top of the country, including Auckland, and thunderstorms with localised downpours are possible for much of the North Island.
“MetService is predicting the run of warmer-than-average temperatures will end this weekend, as a front moves over the South Island and a low-pressure system starts to develop east of the North Island,” MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker said this afternoon.
“Both features are expected to bring rain in their wake, as well as strong winds for the North Island and upper South Island.”
A 14-hour MetService heavy rain warning for Bay of Plenty east of Ōpōtiki, and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti north of Ūawa/Tolaga Bay, is in place from 8pm tomorrow.
“Expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate, with the chance of 130 to 150mm in one or two places. Peak rainfall rates are very dependent on localised convection or thunderstorms, and may reach 25 to 35mm per hour during Saturday morning,” the national weather service said.
In Gisborne/Tairāwhiti from Tolaga Bay southwards, a heavy rain watch is in place for 15 hours from 9pm tomorrow.
A wet Friday across the North Island.
— MetService NZ (@MetService) February 11, 2026
Severe Weather Watches and Warnings issued for much of the North Island during Friday and into Saturday as thunderstorms and heavy rain move west to east across the country. pic.twitter.com/QpMAjsS6Hc
“Peak rainfall rates are very dependent on localised convection or thunderstorms, and may reach 25 to 35mm per hour during Saturday morning.”
Heavy rain watches, with a chance of thunderstorms and localised downpours, have been issued for Northland, Auckland (including Aotea Great Barrier Island), Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato and Waitomo from noon to 10pm tomorrow.
Heavy rain watches, again with a chance of thunderstorms and localised downpours, kick in for Bay of Plenty from Ōpōtiki westwards, eastern hill-country of Taranaki, Taupō, Taumarunui, Taihape, Whanganui, Manawatū, Tararua District and Hawke’s Bay from mid-afternoon tomorrow and continue to the early hours of Saturday.
The front moving up the South Island tomorrow would bring a burst of heavy rain to western areas, with some rain making it east of the Alps, while a southerly moving through on Saturday would bring heavy showers and potential thunderstorms for Otago and Canterbury in the second half of the day, Bakker said.
The low centre developing east of the North Island would drive much of the weekend weather, but its exact position was still uncertain.
“This means it is tricky to nail down the intensity and location of potential severe weather. The forecast position may change from one day to the next, so if you have plans over the weekend, it’s a good idea to keep checking the forecast.“
MetService was also predicting the rain would stay away until the tail end of Wellington’s Round the Bays event on Sunday, but participants would still face strong southerlies.
Tropical moisture is streaming down from the tropical Pacific toward NZ this week. The North Island will sit under the thickest humidity Fri–weekend, bringing a solid risk of heavy rain & storms. The South Island gets a front Friday with a chilly southwest change. pic.twitter.com/tJGHHV5NSy
— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) February 11, 2026
A couple of days of warmer temperatures and high humidity remained, but that would change this weekend as cooler air pushed in from the south, giving much of the South Island a cooler-than-average weekend, Bakker said.
“A few locations [will see] a difference of more than 10C between Friday’s and Sunday’s maximum temperatures. Cooler temperatures move up the North Island through Saturday and should stick around into early next week.”
Masterton was forecast to drop to a high of 18C on Sunday from Friday’s toasty 29C.
The moist air mass pushing down on the country also promised sweaty overnight temperatures, MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley told the Herald earlier.
“Places like Auckland will be having a minimum of 20C [overnight today and tomorrow].”
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