Inflation, dairy, migrants and the last debate

The final election debate between presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will take place Thursday afternoon, New Zealand time. Photo / AP

Inflation data out this morning is regarded as the highlight of the economic calendar this week, but the latest GlobalDairyTrade results are due out early tomorrow, with futures pointing to a small fall.

Also out this week are the Statistics New Zealand immigration figures for September. These are likely to remain robust at about 5500.

The Government last week announced measures to stem the flow of migrants, particularly concerning the parental qualifications under which migrants can bring in their parents to New Zealand.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said having peaked at 6230 last November, monthly migration had consistently been in a range of 5300 to 5700, with the average for the last six months just above 5500.

"While the monthly migration numbers will probably remain stable around these levels over the next few months, at the end of the year we might see the annual totals fall away as we cycle past the very strong months of October and November last year."

Expectations for the September quarterly inflation figures were unchanged from the June quarter at zero, he said. The annual growth rate was expected to be 0.1%.

The Reserve Bank has a mid-point policy inflation target of 2%, which was not expected to be reached until mid-2018.

Mr McIntyre said transport would probably again feature as a reason for the weaker inflation, with fuel and airfares both lower.

With expectations for a Reserve Bank cut next month already high, a weak inflation figure was unlikely to be very surprising and probably would not have a significant impact on financial markets.

The GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction was also one to watch tomorrow morning, he said.

The headline GDT index slipped 3.1% at the last auction, but it was still up 28% over the past three months. Also the New Zealand dollar had fallen by 3.5% against the US dollar since Fonterra upgraded its milk price forecast last month.

With dairy prices quoted in US dollars, like most commodities, if the currency move was sustained, it could provide a small benefit for the payout here in New Zealand, Mr McIntyre said.

It was a busy week for corporate events on the local market, as annual meetings were held in New Zealand and Australia.

Some of the higher profile local companies holding annual meetings included Fletcher Building, Tourism Holdings, Tegel, Ebos, Auckland Airport, Port of Tauranga, Sky TV and SkyCity.

With many companies electing not to issue formal earning guidance in August, some might choose to use their annual meetings to give investors something more specific in terms of outlook.

Those who did issue guidance could be expected to provide an update on whether it was still appropriate.

The third and final US presidential debate would take place on Thursday afternoon, New Zealand time, he said.

"But don't despair, it's the last one."