Huge growth forecasts for kiwifruit industry

Zespri's chief operating officer, Simon Limmer, says kiwifruit industry growth aligned with forecasts to 2030. Photo/Describe Media Services

The Bay's resurgent kiwifruit industry will bring another 14,300 jobs to the region over the next 12 years, according to a new report commissioned by Zespri.

Report author Professor Frank Scrimgeour, of Waikato University, said regional projections were strong, with researchers estimating that the contribution of kiwifruit to the Bay's gross domestic product (GDP) would increase 135 per cent to $2.04 billion a year by 2030.

New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers chairman Doug Brown said the forecasts were realistic. "It is exciting to see these growth projections."

Brown was in Parliament yesterday for the launch of the report by Economic Development Minister and Tauranga MP Simon Bridges.

He said the key areas from a grower's perspective to achieve these forecasts were the supply of labour and access to water.

"We are very keen to work proactively with the Government to give us the opportunity to achieve these targets."

Zespri's chief operating officer, Simon Limmer, said the industry was on a strong path with the gold and green varieties, with actual growth aligning with figures in the report.

He believed that solutions would be found to the speed bumps thrown up by such growth, including post-harvest capacity, labour, land and water.

"Some things need close attention but we will find a solution."

Things that were more outside Zespri's control were diseases like Psa or export market access issues. For instance, a fruit fly incursion would impact on kiwifruit markets and production, he said.

However, Limmer said there were no fundamental flaws in the projections unless something came of left field that they did not know about already.

Nigel Tutt, CEO of Tauranga economic development agency Priority One, said the growth projections were hugely encouraging for the industry and the region.

"Maori growers and land owners will be well placed to take advantage of this growth."

Tutt said a longer-term problem across multiple industries in the Bay was that more jobs would be created than people to fill them. "Finding good staff will be a challenge."

Te Puke-based real estate salesman Stan Robb, of PGG Wrightson, said trying to find good undeveloped flat land in Te Puke, the Tauranga area and Katikati was very difficult and he had 50 buyers on his books looking for top-of-the-line orchards.

He believed the growth in kiwifruit would be out of these prime areas and into other regions like the Waikato and East Coast.

The only way to get a big block of undeveloped land was to buy a dairy farm, but it had to be in the right area. The last bare land he sold for a kiwifruit conversion was in Waimea Drive at $140,000 a hectare, which translated to $160,000 a canopy hectare. Another sale going unconditional was above the Matata Straights, with a potential seven canopy hectares selling for $1.2 million.

He has sold $108 million worth of kiwifruit orchards since Christmas, with a top SunGold orchard selling for $1m a hectare. A top green orchard was selling for about $450,000 a hectare.

"Prices have gone through the roof in the last three months."

Other kiwifruit growth projections
- Additional 29,000 jobs nationally by 2030
- Contribution to national GDP $6.14 billion by 2030 (up $3.54 billion)
- Zespri SunGold accounted for more than half the 2030 projections
- Maori grower revenue increases to $638m a year by 2030 (up $367m)