Pipfruit growers' fears are being realised as international apple prices fall .
Marketer EnzaFruit said the new average gross forecast return to growers was $16.57 a carton, 6.3 per cent below predictions earlier in the season.
But growers still have to deduct costs of about $4.50 a carton from returns to pay
for transport, storage and packaging costs.
This would take their net return to $12.07 a carton.
In January, growers predicted this export season would be crunch time for many.
At the time, grower Richard Kempthorne, of Appleby near Nelson, said growers needed net returns to at least equal those of the 1998 average of $14.17 a carton. In 1999, average returns fell to $10.96 a carton.
Enza operations general manager Clive Durand said the marketer was selling the country's biggest export crop in an international commodity market.
"Essentially the market is awash with fruit and retailers can get their margins from everywhere."
By last Friday, Enza had sold four million cartons of this season's 17.8 million carton export crop.
Mr Durand said Enza had pushed its marketing boundaries to achieve premium prices above those of competitors.
"Growers may not believe this right now but the marketing teams are working as hard as they can."
He said the current exchange rate favoured the exporter and, if the New Zealand dollar remained low through the selling season, it could add about $10 million to the final national return.
He predicted the future export crop might have to be limited in volume and include a focus on size and quality so the crop was "not subject to wild market fluctuations".
"Beyond 15 million cartons we struggle, but it is something we have to talk to the industry about."
The varieties returning below-forecast prices include cox's orange, fiesta, royal gala, braeburn, fuji and gala.
Mr Durand said there had been a major slump in royal gala size coupled with an increase in volume, which eroded the value of the fruit and put pressure on markets.
- NZPA
