GDT: Dairy prices fall 1.4% after technical difficulties delay results

A technical glitch resulted in a confusing morning for those watching the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, held overnight.

Initial reports showed a massive 22% increase in prices across the board, before all information disappeared completely.

All products were “not available” until technical difficulties were fixed and the price indices for Trade Event 390 were corrected and published.

Once normal services resumed, it was revealed that the price index had dropped 1.4%, the fifth consecutive decline for the GDT auction.

Whole milk powder - which has the biggest impact on Fonterra’s farmgate milk price - was down 2.4% to an average of US$3610/MT.

Skim milk powder - Fonterra’s second-biggest reference product – dipped 1.6%, to an average of US$2559/MT.

Cheddar fell 1.9%, to an average of US$4758/MT, and butter was down 0.8% to an average of US$6662/MT.

The biggest percentage fall came from mozzarella, which dropped 5.3% to an average of US$3230/MT.

On the positive side, anhydrous milk fat was up 1.5% to an average of US$7038/MT.

Butter milk powder was not available at this event.

A total of 40,621 MT of product was purchased by 117 successful bidders, compared to 42,013 MT and 125 winning bidders last time.

The results weren’t out when Fonterra’s chief executive, Miles Hurrell, spoke to The Country’s Jamie Mackay today, but he wasn’t far off the mark.

Hurrell predicted results would be “down a couple of per cent or thereabouts”.

While this was “not ideal” from a New Zealand perspective, Hurrell said it wasn’t unexpected.

“What we sense is that it was in line, pretty much, with the futures market.”

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Mackay asked if Fonterra’s $10.00 per kgMS forecast for the current 2025/26 season was under threat.

Hurrell said Fonterra was mindful of international markets and geopolitics, such as China halting its buying of US soybean crops.

“[As a result] there’s a lot more feed floating around the market, which leads to a bit more milk, of course.”

Hurrell said there was also good weather in Europe, and New Zealand was at peak production.

“All of those things would suggest a bit more milk, and buyers smell a bit of blood, and they want to sit on the sidelines.

“So, at this point, I’m not suggesting $10 is under threat, but we certainly need to keep an eye on it.”

On August 21, Fonterra increased its 2024/25 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price from $10.00 per kgMS to $10.15 per kgMS, narrowing the range from $9.70–$10.30 per kgMS to $10.10–$10.20 per kgMS.

Fonterra also retained the $10.00 per kgMS forecast for the current 2025/26 season, while narrowing the range from $8.00–$11.00 per kgMS to $9.00–$11.00 per kgMS.

Fonterra confirmed the forecast and range as part of its annual results announcement on September 25.