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Fonterra could have another chance to make a play for National Foods two years after it lost a protracted battle for the Australian dairy company to Southeast Asia's largest food and drinks group, San Miguel.
Philippines-based San Miguel is understood to be in talks to sell up to
49 per cent of National Foods, one of Australia's largest food companies, to Japan's Kirin, which owns 20 per cent of San Miguel and 46 per cent of Australasian brewer Lion Nathan.
However, other groups - including private equity firm Carlyle - are believed to be interested in buying a stake in National Foods, which has acknowledged that discussions between San Miguel and other parties have taken place.
Australian beverage industry analysts said San Miguel would be better off putting National Foods on the open market instead of conducting a convenient trade sale to a related party.
They queried whether a sale to Kirin would be logical, given the lack of synergies between milk and beer delivery.
Possible suitors with more to gain included Fonterra, Goodman Fielder, Parmalat, Dairy Farmers or Coca-Cola Amatil, they said.
Macquarie Equities analyst Andrew Kovacs said that given Fonterra's failed play for National Foods in 2005, "it would seem logical for them to try again".
Soon after Fonterra missed out on buying National Foods it sold its 19.9 per cent stake for about A$250 million to the successful bidder, San Miguel.
San Miguel also bought Australian fruit juice maker Berri, which it later merged with National Foods.
National Foods' brands include Yoplait yoghurt, Pura milk, Big M flavoured milk and King Island cheese.
However, Fonterra chief executive Andrew Ferrier has since played down the importance of an Australian acquisition, despite being quoted in the Australian media last year saying Fonterra had $2.4 billion available to snare "a big one" in that market.
Goodman Fielder had also expressed interest in getting into dairy in Australia, Kovacs said.
"Goodman Fielder would certainly be interested and would have access to the funds to buy it if it came down to it."
Parmalat has also indicated it is looking at making its first acquisitions in the next 12 months, which could include Australia.
Fonterra would not comment on whether it would be interested in making another tilt at National Foods.
However former Fonterra chief executive Craig Norgate said that now would be a sensible time to do so.
"With the rising value of raw milk prices around the world, that's pushing up input costs for all the consumer dairy companies, which is squeezing profitability.
"Whilst that will affect Fonterra's own consumer business I've already told Fonterra shareholders it's time they should be accumulating assets.
"It's a good time to be buying assets if you've got a long-term view."
Norgate said that Kirin was primarily still focused on core beer markets and he couldn't see why it would be interested in National Foods.
The Australian Financial Review reported that Kirin might make a bid of more than A$2 billion ($2.2 billion) for National Foods.
Dairy dealings
* Philippines food and drinks giant San Miguel is believed to be in talks to sell a stake in National Foods to Japan's Kirin.
* Fonterra lost a bid for National Foods to San Miguel in 2005, and analysts say now would be the time to try again.
* With high dairy commodity prices squeezing the profitability of consumer dairy companies, former Fonterra chief executive Craig Norgate has told the co-op's shareholders they should be accumulating assets.
