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Home / The Country

Federated Farmers slams unofficial online 'storm chasers' hyping up weather

NZ Herald
10 Aug, 2021 08:00 PM5 mins to read

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SH73 Porters Pass on Sunday. Photo / Supplied

SH73 Porters Pass on Sunday. Photo / Supplied

Unofficial forecasters are denying accusations they over-hype weather, saying their predictions are accurate.

Federated Farmers labelled them online "storm chasers" and said they cried wolf about severe weather.

They say the latest blanket of snow across parts of the South Island was not a problem for farmers.

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Mid-Canterbury provincial president David Clark says snow at this time of the year is not unprecedented and Facebook forecasters risk farmers not seeing a big event coming through because they are often exaggerated.

"They're talking these events up when they're just a run-of-the-mill August snowstorm. They're crying wolf and making a nonsense of the whole thing.

"They take the very extreme and then drive around to Arthurs Pass trying to use it as a way of justifying their forecasts. All these guys are doing is trying to sell subscriptions or get clicks."

Federated Farmers Mid Canterbury provincial president David Clark. Photo / Supplied
Federated Farmers Mid Canterbury provincial president David Clark. Photo / Supplied

But an online weather forecaster in Canterbury told the Herald they do not "hype-up" weather.

"We've got massive clients across Canterbury in all sectors. In terms of hyping up weather, not at all. Then I would have people potentially who would unsubscribe, I'd lose contracts."

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They said the forecast posted on their site ahead of the snowfall event this week was "100 per cent correct".

"A lot of the time, a lot of people get caught up in social media headlines and social media content. but they need to be clear on what they are reading.

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'When we say there's going to be heavy snow and low snow in the headline or snow to sea level, that doesn't mean it will snow everywhere in Canterbury to sea level. So that's really important that people are clear in what they are reading."

A forecast posted to social media on Thursday. Photo / Supplied
A forecast posted to social media on Thursday. Photo / Supplied

Another unofficial Canterbury forecaster told the Herald they are always careful with the language they use.

"We never use the word warning or anything like that because that is reserved for official warnings from Metservice.

"We do tend to use words like heads up and developing news, which gives the impression that it's just a developing story for example. We just say it how we see it."

A forecast posted to social media on Friday. Photo / Supplied
A forecast posted to social media on Friday. Photo / Supplied

They said although they do not overhype their forecasts, there had been an increase in social media and online weather forecasters in Canterbury that are subconsciously trying to outdo one another.

Metservice said it paid no attention to unofficial forecasters.

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Meteorologist Rob Kerr told the Herald over-forecasting is a known issue in the industry.

❄ Snow Watches and Warnings updated ❄

Main Changes:

▪ Heavy Snow Warning for Taihape and the Tararua and Remutaka Ranges

▪ Heavy Snow Watch for the inland ranges of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne

Full details: https://t.co/qHyE5zhh6X ^Ash pic.twitter.com/0Wm6azMMIp

— MetService (@MetService) August 7, 2021

"If you look at whether a forecast has been successful or not, you'll compare a missed event to a false alarm. You're treading a fine line between missed events and a false alarm.

"Because the nature of what we try to do is to protect people and property from harm, we are always going to err on the side of caution so there is always going to be a tendency to over-forecast but we work hard to keep that to a minimum."

👀 The Severe Weather Outlook has been updated 👀

The wild weather will continue on Monday, before easing as a narrow ridge of high pressure pushes across Aotearoa.

On Thursday, another active front will move onto the South Island.

Full details: https://t.co/ePtVj8cXwp ^Ash pic.twitter.com/dTYjDqtEWW

— MetService (@MetService) August 7, 2021

Phillip Duncan, who runs WeatherWatch, said a team of qualified scientists and meteorologists from outside the company assists with his forecasts.

WeatherWatch's Phillip Duncan. Photo / Supplied
WeatherWatch's Phillip Duncan. Photo / Supplied

"We give facts and deliver them pretty clearly and we go out of our way generally to dismiss the dramatic headlines you sometimes see in the media.

"It's very important when you put out information about a storm that's coming in, that you don't give anyone anything misleading. Farmers can be absolutely devastated by a headline. It can be really stressful but we are very aware of that at WeatherWatch."

Duncan said some outlets try to draw conclusions from previous events.

Snow out by Lake Opahu in Fairlie on Sunday. Photo / Supplied
Snow out by Lake Opahu in Fairlie on Sunday. Photo / Supplied

"Every event is unique. To say it'll be the same as an event in 2011, I don't think that's wise and we try to avoid doing that. You don't see us pulling out photos from our archives for example showing what might happen, that would go against everything we stand for."

Tony Trewinnard, chief executive of Canterbury-based Blue Skies Weather and a qualified meteorologist, said some unofficial forecasters do over-hype weather.

"There's a difference between forecasters who try to balance all of the information available at any given time and produce a forecast of likely future events and those who are simply passionate about the weather and use that passion to make predictions that are more reflective of what they'd like to see happen."

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