Federated Farmers: Predicting the future

Dr William Rolleston

Science is about predicting the future.

Not the "who will I marry" future but, given a certain set of circumstances and conditions, science can predict particular outcomes within a degree of certainty.

So you can work out using Newton's laws of motion if that black ball will go into the corner pocket to win you the game. As the variables increase the task of prediction becomes increasingly hard.

Farmers rely on science every day, none more so than when they listen to the weather forecast. While weather forecasting is complex we have become better at it, enabling farmers to make decisions much earlier than they would have been able to make in the past.

Understanding the southern oscillation -- the warming and cooling of the southern ocean producing the El Nino and La Nina effects -- gives farmers an early heads up that a drought is highly likely.

Communication is key in an adverse event and Federated Farmers is well served with contacts around the country and a ready workforce with a can-do attitude.

Dr William Rolleston

This is little comfort for the North Canterbury farmers I visited last month who have already endured one year of extreme dry -- despite the constant predictions they would get rain!

Not only can farmers make earlier decisions but organisations such as Federated Farmers get an early heads up that we will also need to focus our resources on yet another adverse event.

Communication is key in any adverse event and Federated Farmers is well served with a network of contacts right around the country and a ready workforce with a can-do attitude which was expressed so well in the Farmy Army response to the Christchurch earthquakes.

As we face more adverse events it is vital we strengthen this network and that it is backed up by good communication infrastructure such as broadband and mobile phone coverage as well as a robust road network.

We are better at predicting the future but we don't always get it right or see it coming. Farming families have shown that they are good at helping each other and helping other communities when it counts. This edition of NFR covers what we are doing to prepare for the predicted dry and the importance of rural infrastructure -- two aspects vital to building resilience in a changing world.