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Home / The Country

Farm confidence slips a little after election

Hawkes Bay Today
27 Sep, 2017 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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Government policies and falling commodity prices have contributed to a drop in optimism about the agricultural economy.

Government policies and falling commodity prices have contributed to a drop in optimism about the agricultural economy.

Farmer confidence has eased from the record highs of the previous quarter, but remains at elevated levels, according to the latest Rabobank rural confidence survey.

The third quarterly survey for the year has shown net farmer confidence has fallen to +38 per cent, down from the record high +54 per cent recorded in June.

And with the country in election mode recently, government policy was found to be a significant concern for farmers taking a more negative outlook on the year ahead.

The survey found the number of farmers expecting the agricultural economy to improve in the next 12 months had fallen to 46 per cent of the 450 farmers surveyed from 57 per cent in the previous quarter, with those expecting agricultural economic conditions to worsen rising from 3 to 8per cent.

Rabobank NZ general manager for country banking Hayley Moynihan said both sheep and beef and dairy farmers were less optimistic about the agricultural economy than last quarter.

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"Sheep and beef farmer confidence dropped from +53 per cent last quarter to +22 per cent in this survey," she said. "Dairy farmer confidence also declined, down from +58 per cent last quarter to +50 per cent this survey."

The survey found government policies (46 per cent) and falling commodity prices (42 per cent) were the key reasons cited by farmers who expected the performance of agricultural economy to worsen in the coming 12 months.

"The prospect of increased government intervention within the farm-gate appears to be a contributor to the dip in farmer confidence."

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While farmer concerns about government policies and lower commodity prices may have contributed to lower confidence levels, the survey indicated farmers were largely optimistic about the agricultural economy in the year ahead.

The survey also found farmers' expectations for their own farm business performance fell from last quarter, but remained strong.

The net reading for farmers' confidence in their own business performance dropped to +44 per cent, back marginally from the +47 per cent last survey.

A total of 51 per cent were expecting an improvement in the performance of their own farm business in the next 12 months (down from 55 per cent with that view in the previous survey) while 7per cent were expecting it to worsen (down from 8per cent).

Dairy farmers remain positive about the outlook for their own businesses registering a net reading of +57 per cent on this measure (back from +61 per cent), while horticulturists were more optimistic than last quarter about their own businesses climbing to a net reading of +51 per cent (from +38).

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Farmer concerns

* Net rural confidence remains at elevated levels, but has fallen from the record high of last quarter.
* Of farmers expecting the agricultural economy to worsen, nearly half cited concern about government policies as a key driver of negative sentiment.
* Farmers' expectations of their own farm business performance is also marginally down, but still strong.

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