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Home / The Country

Dairy price rally continues, GDT index up 5.1pc to record

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
1 Mar, 2022 05:07 PM3 mins to read

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The fresh gains put more upward pressure on Fonterra's farmgate milk price forecast, which has already been heavily revised upwards to record levels. Photo / 123rf

The fresh gains put more upward pressure on Fonterra's farmgate milk price forecast, which has already been heavily revised upwards to record levels. Photo / 123rf

Dairy prices rallied to their highest point on record at this morning's Global Dairy Trade auction, with the GDT price index gaining 5.1 per cent since the last auction.

The Global Dairy Trade price index hit 1593, breaking the previous record of 1573 set in April 2013.

The latest increase represents the fifth consecutive auction where gains have been recorded.

Prices were up across the board, led by a 10.9 per cent surge in cheddar prices to US$6394 a tonne.

Wholemilk powder prices, which have the greatest impact on Fonterra's farmgate milk price, shot up 5.7 per cent to an average US$4757/a tonne.

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Skim milk powder, which also has a strong bearing on the milk price, gained 4.7 per cent to US$4481a tonne.

Butter prices gained 5.9 per cent to an average US$7086/tonne, anhydrous milk fat 2.1 per cent to US$7048/MT and butter milk powder firmed 5.8 per cent to US$4217/tonne.

This morning's gains put still more upward pressure on Fonterra's farmgate milk price forecast, which has already been heavily revised upwards to record levels.

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Fonterra last month lifted its 2021/22 forecast farmgate milk price range to NZ$9.30 - $9.90 per kgMS, up from NZ$8.90 - $9.50 per kgMS.

This increases the midpoint of the range, which farmers are paid off, by 40 cents to $9.60 per kg, which would be the highest ever paid.

Mike McIntyre, head of derivatives at Jarden, said both Russia and Ukraine have a big influence in the globally traded wheat and corn market, and there was a likelihood that events in Ukraine are contributing to elevated feed prices.

"In the case of New Zealand, while there is a significant amount of supplementary feed bought into the country, an overwhelming majority of the feed source is still pasture-based," he said.

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"This gives local farmers a sizeable global advantage when it comes to the cost of production," he said.

"With commodity and currency dancing to a very different tune at present, questions remain around the direction of milk prices," McIntyre said.

NZX dairy futures pricing had suggested big gains were in store for whole milk powder and skim milk powder.

Westpac expects that weakness in New Zealand dairy production due to unfavourable weather conditions will continue to support global dairy prices.

Listen to Jamie Mackay interview Miles Hurrell on The Country below:

"Similarly, bad weather conditions and rising input costs are also likely to have affected
production in other key exporters such as the EU and the US," the bank said.

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict could push prices higher.

Along with wheat, Russia is a major exporter some of the raw materials used for making fertiliser.

Fears of supply disruptions have seen feed and fertiliser prices spike higher,
adding to the pressure on already constrained production levels, Westpac said.

This should further support world dairy prices in the near term.

In the longer term, the bank expected prices to moderate over the
season as global dairy supply eventually rebounds.

In the meant time, there were "upside risks" to Westpac's $9.50/kg milk price forecast.

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