The Bay of Plenty's $135 million avocado industry is facing a devastating downturn over the next 18 months after the widespread failure of trees to set fruit.
"It is a bloody disaster," said one of the region's biggest growers, Sam Dunlop of Kauri Point, whose losses are almost total.
While
early estimates of the extent of the crop failure in the western Bay are still being assessed by the Avocado Industry Council, estimates from within the sector put next season's losses at 75 to 80 per cent of this year's record harvest.
It means most growers face the prospect of having little or no crop to harvest until the spring/summer of 2007/2008 - nearly 18 months away.
Dunlop said growers thought they had good pollination but nothing came of it.
"They stopped sizing up and then the terrible truth dawned."
He said the implications were serious for suppliers, orchardists, orchard contractors, packhouses and exporters.
Hard-won export markets would be under-supplied next year and higher prices would restrict the growth of the domestic market.
Bay growers took the brunt of an unusual combination of circumstances, while the other major avocado growing regions survived virtually unscathed.
With the Bay accounting for more than half the country's 4000ha of avocado growing, it meant that the value of the crop together with on-farm and off-farm investment was worth at least $135 million.
Colin Partridge, of Team Avocado, estimates next season's crop will be 20 to 25 per cent of the present harvest.
Putting aside this year's bumper crop as a one-off, he estimated next season's would be about 40 per cent of the 2004/2005 harvest.
A cold snap in late November is thought to be partially responsible for the poor fruit set. Katikati grower Syd Hopkins said avocados were temperamental trees and the cause of the problem was as much climatic as growers doing something special or something wrong.
- BAY OF PLENTY TIMES
