Changes ahead for wine

Northern hemisphere vineyards had a poor 2017 harvest; pictured La Rioja region, Spain. Photo / File

Changes are afoot for the global wine sector in 2018, following a poor northern hemisphere harvest in 2017, which extended to some regions in the southern hemisphere.

Some of the key drivers include grape scarcity and higher prices and changes in trade agreements and increased mergers and acquisitions, according to Rabobank's wine quarterly report.

RaboResearch senior beverages analyst Maria Castroviejo said in the report that 2017 was a dynamic year for the wine industry, marked by short-term scarcity and rising prices.

"Although the unconventional year that 2017 was may just be a one-off, it may also be enough to accelerate deeper changes that were already developing in the wine industry," Ms Castroviejo said.

In the New Zealand update, Ms Castroviejo said US wine imports had continued their upward trend, as New Zealand and France drove bottled wine imports.

During the nine months to September 2017, imports from New Zealand rose by 16% in volume and 12% in value, mainly reflecting the rapid shift away from bottled towards bulk wine imports, she said.

Ms Castroviejo said as a direct consequence of the tighter volumes, prices had increased.

"Grape buyers have already been hit by it and some wine buyers, as well," she said.

However, most companies are at present negotiating their 2018 deals, which was when the full impact of the rising prices would spread across the wine sector value chain, she said.

"For certain products, higher prices can be relatively easily transferred to the consumer. In other markets, the higher prices are likely to result in lower volumes," Ms Castroviejo.

In other market changing conditions, Ms Castroviejo said China had become the fifth-largest wine importer in the world, having consolidated its position as a "major actor in the global wine trade".

"Operators in the country have gained knowledge and experience and are more confident in the business," she said.

Subsequently, the number of intermediaries between wine producer and consumer was in decline.

The emergence of recent trade agreements, such as that between China and Australia, struck in December 2015, was reflected in the annual growth of wine exports to China.

Australia's share of China's total wine imports had grown from around 13% in 2014 to about 18%, for the first half trading in 2017.

Separate trade agreements between the European Union and Canada, and EU and Japan were expected to also shape the future flows of imports.

"More importantly, given the size of the market, the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations will also shape future global wine flows," Ms Castroviejo said.

She expects the global merger and acquisition market to "remain active" in the wine sector.