Federated Farmers Bay of Plenty provincial president Darryl Jensen says despite a good season, they are '"running to standstill".
He is not alone.
Federated Farmers Rotorua-Taupō provincial president Colin Guyton believes the "hurt is coming for farmers".
For example, his feed bill has gone up by $130 a tonne, adding an extra $30,000 to $40,000 to the budget alongside fertiliser costs that had more than doubled.
Farmers, says Guyton, have been around long enough to know the payouts can - and will - drop.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand chief economist Andrew Burtt says on-farm inflation was 10.2 per cent for the year ended March 2022 - the highest it's been since 1985-86 [13.2 per cent].
Since that analysis, fuel has increased 23 per cent [from March to June] and fertiliser increased 8 per cent over the same time.
Farmers have also faced increased prices for contractors, tradespeople, machinery and parts for operating farm infrastructure and vehicles due to a tight labour market and increased import shipping costs, he said.
Ballance Agri-Nutrients confirms superphosphate is now about $490 a tonne compared with $315 two years ago; while diammonium phosphate has skyrocketed to $1800 a tonne compared with $799 two years ago.
They also warn further price hikes are inevitable.
DairyNZ budget case studies of eight New Zealand farms show that over three seasons [2020-21 to 2022-23 forecast] milk income is up $1.19 per kg of milk solids.
The organisation's boss, Tim Mackle, says: "However, farm working expense increases up $1.06 per kg of milk solids is eroding most of the milk price gain."
This is a lot of data to process but no matter which way you spin it, the outlook looks grim.
Farmers are a resilient bunch but there is only so much pain they can absorb before it takes a toll both mentally and financially.
So, I am sparing a thought for our farmers and hoping the headwinds will change and escalating costs will take a nosedive.
Our economy may well depend on it.
