Wigley likened agri-chemicals to the pharmaceuticals industry, where there was plenty of competition for older products that had come off patent while companies sought a premium to cover research and development costs for new products.
The Commerce Commission said it is unable to comment on whether the transaction would require its scrutiny. However, John Hampton, professor of seed technology and director of the Lincoln University Seed Research Centre, said it may require antitrust approval.
While Monsanto is the world's largest seed company, its GM crops such as Roundup-ready Canola, soybean and maize aren't sold in New Zealand and its local sales in that market are confined to vegetable seeds produced by its Seminis and De Ruiter units. Bayer has a smaller seeds business but is mainly in the pest and disease product side of the agri-chemical market, including seed treatments, while Monsanto's chemicals were more in the herbicide and weed control side of the market.
All up there were about half a dozen major companies in the seed sector, "so I can't see there would be a major impact in what's happening in seeds in New Zealand," Hampton said, adding that he speculated that Monsanto's GM technology was a major driver for Bayer's takeover offer.
Globally, there was no new herbicide chemistry emerging and increased resistance and regulatory hurdles for some existing ones. At the same time growing demand "for more sustainable methods of weed and pest control," he said.
"Chemicals aren't the future. Now the industry is looking at interactions between microbes and plants - biocontrols," he said.
The past five years have been marked by a number of acquisitions of small biocontrol companies by big agri-chemical producers "being astute and looking to the future". Research was now focussed in two main areas - GM technology and the use of bacteria and fungi to control pests and diseases and to promote plant growth, he said.
Industry group Agcarm, which represents about 85 per cent of the New Zealand agri-chemicals market, has 14 members listed as crop protection companies. It estimates the New Zealand market is worth $250 million to $300 million.
Bayer's offer for Monsanto of US$128 a share in cash, about 20 per cent more than the last trading price of US$106.76. Bayer said the deal would create "significant value" with annual synergies of about US$1.5 billion after three years "plus additional synergies from integrated solutions in future years".