$50m lamb losses will flow through to dining tables

Photo / Bay of Plenty Times

Diners and shoppers should expect a rise in the cost of lamb following the deaths of hundreds of thousands of lambs in Southland storms.

The price of lamb may rise because of lamb and ewe losses, which the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry expects will cost at least $50 million.

About 500,000 lambs due to be born this week are estimated to have died just after birth, or beforehand when their mothers succumbed to the cold or associated illnesses.

MAF South Island manager Trish Burborough said was too soon to tally how many animals had died because bad weather was still battering Southland and the central North Island.

However, Beef and Lamb chief executive Rod Slater said losses were significant. "We could be talking about a million lambs ... I may be wrong but it is significant, so that's a lot of lamb that won't be available for wherever it's destined.

"There's no question this is way worse than anyone expected ... it will put pressure on supply."

Mr Slater said that while a drop in supply usually increased prices, how much they went up would not be known for some time.

"Supply and demand rules ultimately but there has to be a consumer at the other end who's willing to pay the price, so the consumer will ultimately govern what that price may be," he said.

The first of the season's lambs were sold in late October, Mr Slater said, so it would take until then before the impact of the storm was known.

Restaurant owner and master chef Simon Gault said if lamb prices went up, it would impact on the industry.

"We're constantly under the hammer for increasing prices so it will make life difficult, that's for sure.

"Lamb is one of the most expensive items to buy and given that we have so many sheep in New Zealand, one would have thought it wouldn't be quite that way. But as far as buying meat goes, lamb versus other meat and things, it's definitely a very high price.

"Unfortunately we have to absorb these sort of things."

Susan Cho, who owns Annabelles restaurant in St Heliers, said any change in price would be decided upon by her supplier. "At the moment the supplier is [charging] the same price so I want to see how it goes."

Ms Cho said if she had to pay more for lamb, she would consider a small price increase on her menu.

Federated Farmers president Don Nicolson said losses from the storm would not be known for some time.

"One thing we do know is there's going to be less of it this year than there was last year.

"The sheep meat industry ... there won't be change out of $50 million; that seems to be the bottom end consensus."

He said although farmers were getting higher returns than ever for lamb, the strong New Zealand dollar "took the edge off" profits and the storm was yet another blow for farmers.

However, Mr Nicolson emphasised that the storm was a "once in a lifetime" event. Not all farmers had been lambing when it hit, so they were not as badly affected as others.