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Home / The Country / Listen

Rabobank dairy update with Michael Harvey

The Country
2 Sep, 2020 02:05 AM3 mins to read

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Content brought to you by Rabobank.

Rabobank's Melbourne-based dairy analyst Michael Harvey gives The Country's Jamie Mackay an update on the industry.

Rabobank 2020 Global Dairy Top 20 report

Fonterra has slipped to sixth position in the list of the world's largest dairy companies, according to the latest 2020 Rabobank Global Dairy Top 20 report.

"Every year we put out our global top 20 dairy companies ranked by revenue ... it's a great little rank table to look at what's going on with the big dairy companies around the world," Harvey said.

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The top two spots on the list were unchanged from last year with Nestle (Switzerland) retaining first position and Lactalis (France) second.

The top five on the list were rounded out by Dairy Farmers of America (up to third from sixth in 2019), French Dairy Company Danone (back one place to fourth) and Chinese Dairy Company Yili (up to fifth from eighth).

Chinese company Mengniu lifted from tenth to eighth position and Denmark's Arla Foods dropped from seventh to ninth place.

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"One of the themes that we've seen emerging ... is the rise of the Chinese companies in terms of their global ambitions," Harvey said.

"They are big dairy companies in the largest dairy market but they've also got global aspirations and we've seen that with acquisitions in offshore markets like Yili buying a dairy co-operative in New Zealand."

Currency concerns

Upwards currency movements were a bit of a headache for exporters right now, with the NZD/USD cross inching higher to sit at 67 cents, Harvey said.

Discover more

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Agribusiness

Fonterra slides down a couple of places in global ranking

01 Sep 08:47 PM

"It would be a worry for a number of export countries around the world. We've got strength in the US dollar."

"So you've got a situation where the currency's moving in the wrong direction and commodity prices are softening - so that's not great news for dairy exporting in this part of the world."

However, Rabobank expected recovery in the foodservice channel to continue to improve – which would be an important watch for ensuring market balance.

Listen to the full interview below:

World milk volumes

US milk volumes lifted 1.5 percent for July 2020 compared to the prior year, and European supplies have risen 1.3 per cent year on year for June 2020.

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"The more recent data that's come out has shown that production is growing again in Europe and the US and they are in expansion mode," Harvey said.

Rabobank said it remained cautious regarding commodity prices as New Zealand headed into peak milk production, and therefore volumes on offer for the coming GDT events.

Results from the latest Global Dairy Trade Event

GDT prices slipped for the fourth consecutive week, with the latest trading event seeing average prices dip 1 per cent compared to the prior event and landing at USD 2,955/tonne.

Whole Milk Powder (WMP) prices fell 2 per cent from the last event with prices settling at USD 2,884/tonne. Butter fell 1.2 per cent to land at USD 3,334/tonne.

In more positive news for New Zealand dairy farmers, Skim Milk Powder (SMP) saw a lift of almost 2 per cent to sit at USD 2,663/tonne.

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Helping this price rise was the reduced SMP volumes on offer for this event (325 tonnes less than prior forecast).

Fonterra has also pulled back on the SMP volumes available on the GDT platform in the coming 12 month period (10,000 tonnes less) due to demand for SMP off-GDT.

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