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Home / The Country / Dairy

Fonterra confident it will weather the storm

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
9 Aug, 2015 04:20 AM4 mins to read

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Fonterra Chief Theo Spierings. Photo / Chris Gorman

Fonterra Chief Theo Spierings. Photo / Chris Gorman

Fonterra chief executive Theo Spierings said he was confident the co-operative could weather the storm posed by very low dairy prices, but said volatility in world markets was here to stay.

New Zealand's biggest exporter has announced the payout available to farmers in the 2015/16 season was forecast at $4.25-$4.35 a kg, comprising the farm gate milk price $3.85 per kg of milk solids - down from a previous forecast of $5.25 a kg - and an forecast earnings per share range of 40 to 50c.

At the same time, the co-op Fonterra's announced a $430 million support scheme aimed at making an extra 50c per kg available in the form of a loan, made possible through a $500m to $600m reduction in capital expenditure.

In an interview following Friday's announcement, Spierings said prices would bounce back, based on reduced production in Europe and China, and a projected 2 per cent fall in New Zealand production this season.

"We have to be cautious, because the volatility is here to stay," he told the Herald.

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"We will stay on track and we will keep on executing on our key strategy, which is converting volume to value," he said.

Fonterra's 10,500 or so farmers had built a "very strong and resilient" co-op.

"And the strength of the co-operative is evident today - that's the message."

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Spierings reiterated this belief that the current downturn in prices was cyclical.

While high grain prices in Europe and lower production in China, coupled with a projected decline in production in New Zealand, would eventually translate into higher prices, low prices could remain for the next six to 12 months.

"It will bounce back, it's just a question of time. That's why we are saying that you don't have to pay back the 50c per kg until the milk price hits $6.00 or more - because we are confident that it will go back to $6.00," he said.

Fonterra, which is in a process of reducing staff and improving efficiency, said farmers were caught up in global issues - among them being Russia's food import ban and unrest in the Middle-East.

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While the market was undoubtedly going through a rough patch, he said co-op still struggled to get its message out.

"I think we still struggle with our message, which is that we are creating a whole lot of value for New Zealand, with 26 per cent more milk (production growth over the last five years) and shifting it to a higher value proposition - that's significant value creation," he said.

Friday's revised milk price price would be the lowest 2002. Since that time, farm costs have risen more than a dollar per kilogram of milksolids and average debt levels have doubled, according to the farmer-funded DairyNZ.

"It is also why we have to help them as much as we can to reduce the costs associated with producing milk," DairyNZ chief executive Tim Mackle said.

Low interest rates are helping, but DairyNZ analysis showed the average farmer now needed a milk price of $5.40 to breakeven, down from its previous estimate of $5.70.
"Farmers know they can't control the milk price but they have some control over what it costs them to produce their milk," he said.

DairyNZ held a meeting with Fonterra and Federated Farmers and the representatives of the major banks last week to discuss what we could be done to support farmers.

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Sharemilkers and those with high debt are expected to be the hardest hit by the decline in prices.

DairyNZ estimates the dairy industry has contributed - $67 billion in export income since June 2010.

ASB Bank rural economist Nathan Penny said news of the 50c support payment would have come as a big, positive, surprise to farmers but may act as a disincentive for them to reduce production.

"Short-term cashflows are better due to the support payment," he said.

"But in the medium term, the dairy price recovery may be delayed as better cashflows provide some incentive to maintain production at a higher level than in their absence."

Fonterra Shareholders' Council chairman, Duncan Coull said the co-operative's unique position had enabled it to provide assistance to its farmers in tough times.

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Coull said farmers are under "immense pressure" and that the next 12 months would be extremely tough for all.

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