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Home / The Country / Dairy

Dairy woes buffer debt slide

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
17 Dec, 2014 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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In the latest quarter goods exports were down 3 per cent (seasonally adjusted) to $12 billion largely because of an 11 per cent drop in dairy prices. Photo / Brett Walker

In the latest quarter goods exports were down 3 per cent (seasonally adjusted) to $12 billion largely because of an 11 per cent drop in dairy prices. Photo / Brett Walker

Net global investment position in the red by $152b as foreign claims on economy bite.

Foreign claims on the economy exceed New Zealand investment abroad by $152 billion.

That is how much the net international investment position was in the red at the end of September 2014, Statistics New Zealand reported yesterday. Almost 95 per cent of it is net debt, the rest equity.

It is $800 million higher than it was three months earlier.

But measured against the size of the economy it has been shrinking for five and a half years. It is the equivalent of 64.3 per cent of gross domestic product, the lowest that ratio has been since 2001 and well down from its peak of 85.9 per cent in the March 2009 quarter.

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By international standards it is closer to the disreputable (Greek) than the provident (German) end of the range; we rank with Romania and Latvia. And it is flattered somewhat by a remaining $4.4 billion of earthquake-related reinsurance claims which have yet to be settled, and which count as international assets until they are. Excluding them net foreign liabilities would be 66.4 per cent of GDP.

Even so it still represents an improvement of nearly 20 percentage points of GDP from the March 2009 peak. If the national boat is still lying too low in the water for comfort, there is significantly more freeboard than there was then.

The net international investment position represents the cumulative effect of decades of current account deficits.

Statisticians measure the current account balance by the flows of payments earned from trade and investment.

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But economists can demonstrate with a bit of algebra that the balance equals the difference between saving and investment within the economy. Our chronic deficits show that we do not save enough to fund the economy's investment needs and we have to import the savings of foreigners to make up the difference.

The improvement in the net international investment position testifies to a shift in household behaviour since the global financial crisis.

For the past five years New Zealand households have spent less than their income.

Not all that much less, about 2 per cent a year on average, but nevertheless a turnaround from the previous nine years when households were net dis-savers (spending more than their income) by an average of 3.6 per cent a year.

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In the year to September the current account deficit was $6 billion, or 2.6 per cent of GDP, compared with $5.8 billion or 2.5 per cent of GDP in the year to June and at the low end of market expectations.

Westpac economist Michael Gordon said the main reason the annual deficit widened only slightly was that goods exports in the latest quarter were only around $100 million down on the September quarter last year when volumes of dairy exports were hammered by drought.

In the latest quarter goods exports were down 3 per cent (seasonally adjusted) to $12 billion largely because of an 11 per cent drop in dairy prices. Prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auctions suggested we would see similar falls in each of the next two quarters, Gordon said.

The current account deficit is expected to widen significantly from here.

The Treasury expects it to hit 5.3 per cent of GDP by March next year and 6.2 per cent a year later. The Reserve Bank is a bit more sanguine picking 4.4 per cent of GDP by next March and 5.8 per cent a year later.

"Those forecasts will not have fully accounted for the recent sharp decline in oil prices and associated relief for net imports," BNZ economist Doug Steel said.

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BNZ expects the deficit to widen to 5 per cent of GDP over the coming year.

ANZ economists have a similar view, citing further falls in the terms of trade, a high New Zealand dollar and the fact that the current economic expansion is driven by domestic demand.

"The magnitude of the deterioration is not set in stone," ANZ economist Mark Smith said. "It depends on private and government sector saving behaviour, on when the goods terms of trade find a floor and on what the New Zealand dollar does. Spending restraint, smarter investing, and further strides on the productivity front hold the key to containing our external debt and deficit metrics."

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