Confidence slumps to a three-year low

Business confidence has fallen to a three-year low particularly exposed to the dairy sector. Photo / Christine Cornege

Regions exposed to the downturn in the dairy sector lead the drop, survey shows.

Business confidence has fallen to a three-year low, led by regions like Waikato, Canterbury and Southland particularly exposed to the dairy sector, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey of business opinion found.

Even Auckland has not escaped the southerly wind - a net 18 per cent of firms expect general business conditions to improve over the next six months, down from a net 27 per cent in the March survey, though that is well above the national average of a net 5 per cent positive (down from a net 23 per cent in March).

NZIER economist Christina Leung said the survey's results were consistent with an economy growing at an annual pace of about 2.6 per cent, which would be the same rate that gross domestic product grew in the year to March.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the QSBO, while softer, did not point to an economy on its knees.

"Yes the economy is decelerating but it is far from a full-blown downturn," Bagrie said. "It's more akin to moderation to a below-trend rate."

The survey's readings for domestic trading activity, experienced over the past three months and expected for the next three, were weaker, along with hiring and hiring intentions, investment and investment intentions, and profitability.

Firms' pricing power remains under pressure. Only a net 1 per cent reported they had raised their selling prices in the past three months, while a net 17 per cent reported higher costs, exacerbating the margin squeeze evident in the previous two surveys.

Retailers were especially grim, with a net 7 per cent reporting weaker sales, compared with a net 21 per cent reporting higher sales in the March quarter. Expectations for the next three months are also in negative territory.

By contrast, among manufacturers a net 24 per cent expect exports to improve, perhaps reflecting a more favourable exchange rate with Australia. They reported less spare capacity but a decline in investment intentions, albeit to levels above their long-run average.

Economy-wide firms reported it had become a bit less difficult to find the skilled labour they need. Reported skill shortages remain below the levels recorded during the mid-2000s boom.

Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert said while employment intentions eased further in the June quarter, they remained consistent with relatively solid growth in jobs over the coming months.

"It's a slowdown, but much as we expect, and from rates of employment growth last year that were clearly unsustainable."

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said the survey added to evidence suggesting the conditions required for stronger domestic inflation - in particular, above-trend economic growth - were no longer in place.

"We think that this leaves the Reserve Bank on track to ease the official cash rate further over coming meetings, with a lower exchange rate required to lift inflation towards target levels," Gibbs said.

ASB economist Jane Turner also expects weakness in business confidence and inflation pressures to prompt further interest rate cuts.

"Recent declines in the New Zealand dollar and lower interest rates should provide support to growth over 2016," she said.

Bagrie said the combination of growth slowing and inflation pressures remaining benign was consistent with additional easing from the Reserve Bank.

"We continue to see the bank returning the OCR to 2.5 per cent [from 3.25 per cent now] with a further cut later this month as well as cuts in September and March."

Leung agrees about the need for another two rate cuts but is not sure about a third.

Slipping back

• Net 18% in Auckland expect general business conditions to improve, down from net 27%.
• Net 5% positive nationally, down from net 23%.
• Net 1% have raised selling prices in the past three months.
• Net 17% have reported higher costs.